English
Related papers

Related papers: Perfect Sampling of Multivariate Hawkes Process

200 papers

In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-14 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Lexing Xie

We consider a nonlinear multivariate Hawkes process having a variable length memory which allows to describe the activity of a neuronal network by its membrane potential. We propose a graphical construction of the process and we construct,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Branda Goncalves , Paul Gresland

We propose a fast and efficient estimation method that is able to accurately recover the parameters of a d-dimensional Hawkes point-process from a set of observations. We exploit a mean-field approximation that is valid when the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Emmanuel Bacry , Stéphane Gaïffas , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-François Muzy

Properties of strong mixing have been established for the stationary linear Hawkes process in the univariate case, and can serve as a basis for statistical applications. In this paper, we provide the technical arguments needed to extend the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Ousmane Boly , Felix Cheysson , Thi Hien Nguyen

This paper analyzes the performance of sequential importance sampling algorithms for estimating the number of perfect matchings in bipartite graphs. Precise bounds on the number of samples required to yield an accurate estimate are derived.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Andy Tsao

This paper proves the consistency property for the regularized maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs). It also develops an alternating minimization type algorithm (AA-iPALM) to compute the MLEs with…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Xin Guo , Anran Hu , Renyuan Xu , Junzi Zhang

We present a perfect simulation algorithm for measures that are absolutely continuous with respect to some Poisson process and can be obtained as invariant measures of birth-and-death processes. Examples include area- and…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Roberto Fernandez , Pablo A. Ferrari , Nancy Garcia

In this paper, we design a nonparametric online algorithm for estimating the triggering functions of multivariate Hawkes processes. Unlike parametric estimation, where evolutionary dynamics can be exploited for fast computation of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-26 Yingxiang Yang , Jalal Etesami , Niao He , Negar Kiyavash

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Qiang Zhang , Aldo Lipani , Omer Kirnap , Emine Yilmaz

We propose an efficient novel path sampling-based framework designed to accelerate the investigation of rare events in complex molecular systems. A key innovation is the shift from sampling restricted path ensemble distributions, as in…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-03-28 Gianmarco Lazzeri , Peter G. Bolhuis , Roberto Covino

We provide dual algorithms for sampling the space of abstract simplicial complexes on a fixed number of vertices. We develop a generative and descriptive sampler designed with heuristics to help balance the combinatorial multiplicities of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-03 John Lombard

In this paper, we present a nonparametric estimation procedure for the multivariate Hawkes point process. The timeline is cut into bins and -- for each component process -- the number of points in each bin is counted. The distribution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-18 Matthias Kirchner

This paper presents an algorithm for the simulation of Hawkes-type processes where the intensity is expressed in terms of a continuous-time autoregressive moving average model. We identify upper bounds for both the univariate and the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-10 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji

We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-17 Stephen J. Hardiman , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Anna Bonnet , Felix Cheysson , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

This work contributes to the theory and applications of Hawkes processes. We introduce and examine a new class of Hawkes processes that we call generalized Hawkes processes, and their special subclass -- the generalized multivariate Hawkes…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz Nieweglowski

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a non-stationary Hawkes process with time-dependent reproduction rate and baseline intensity. Our approach relies on the standard maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), coinciding with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet , Antoine Lotz

We propose a new Monte Carlo method for efficiently sampling trajectories with fixed initial and final conditions in a system with discrete degrees of freedom. The method can be applied to any stochastic process with local interactions,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-03-30 Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak , Francesco Zamponi