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Externally controlled trials (ECTs) are increasingly used when randomized controls are infeasible, unethical, or insufficient, including applications in rare diseases, oncology, pediatrics, and post-approval effectiveness research. Although…

Credit risk scorecards are logistic regression models, fitted to large and complex data sets, employed by the financial industry to model the probability of default of a potential customer. In order to ensure that a scorecard remains a…

Credit scores are critical for allocating consumer debt in the United States, yet little evidence is available on their performance. We benchmark a widely used credit score against a machine learning model of consumer default and find…

The need for controlling and effectively managing credit risk has led financial institutions to excel in improving techniques designed for this purpose, resulting in the development of various quantitative models by financial institutions…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited sample sizes due to high costs and lengthy recruitment periods, compromising precision in treatment effect estimation. External real-world control data offer a valuable…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often exhibit limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to small sample sizes. In recent years, the combination of external controls has gained increasing attention as a means of…

Online lending, a phenomenon which is becoming mainstream due to the migration of consumer finance to the Internet and the adoption of AI based lending models, is an example of learning by doing. This paper studies optimal policies for a…

Of late, in order to have better acceptability among various domain, researchers have argued that machine intelligence algorithms must be able to provide explanations that humans can understand causally. This aspect, also known as…

Machine learning plays an essential role in preventing financial losses in the banking industry. Perhaps the most pertinent prediction task that can result in billions of dollars in losses each year is the assessment of credit risk (i.e.,…

We find it is common for consumers who are not in financial distress to make credit card payments at or close to the minimum. This pattern is difficult to reconcile with economic factors but can be explained by minimum payment information…

Globally, two billion people and more than half of the poorest adults do not use formal financial services. Consequently, there is increased emphasis on developing financial technology that can facilitate access to financial products for…

A major part of the balance sheets of the largest US banks consists of credit card portfolios. Hence, managing the charge-off rates is a vital task for the profitability of the credit card industry. Different macroeconomic conditions affect…

Credit card is one of the most extensive methods of instalment for both online and offline mode of payment for electronic transactions in recent times. credit cards invention has provided significant ease in electronic transactions.…

With the rise of the digital economy and an explosion of available information about consumers, effective personalization of goods and services has become a core business focus for companies to improve revenues and maintain a competitive…

Regulators and academics are increasingly interested in the causal effect that algorithmic actions of a digital platform have on consumption. We introduce a general causal inference problem we call the steerability of consumption that…

We use machine learning techniques to investigate whether it is possible to replicate the behavior of bank managers who assess the risk of commercial loans made by a large commercial US bank. Even though a typical bank already relies on an…

Increasing the success rate of a process, i.e. the percentage of cases that end in a positive outcome, is a recurrent process improvement goal. At runtime, there are often certain actions (a.k.a. treatments) that workers may execute to lift…

Many marketing applications, including credit card incentive programs, offer rewards to customers who exceed specific spending thresholds to encourage increased consumption. Quantifying the causal effect of these thresholds on customers is…

The digitalization of credit scoring has become essential for financial institutions and commercial banks, especially in the era of digital transformation. Machine learning techniques are commonly used to evaluate customers'…

Financial inclusion ensures that individuals have access to financial products and services that meet their needs. As a key contributing factor to economic growth and investment opportunity, financial inclusion increases consumer spending…