English
Related papers

Related papers: Forecasting Election Polls with Spin Systems

200 papers

We study inference and reconstruction of couplings in a partially observed kinetic Ising model. With hidden spins, calculating the likelihood of a sequence of observed spin configurations requires performing a trace over the configurations…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2021-04-13 Benjamin Dunn , Yasser Roudi

The Ising model provides a natural mapping for many computationally hard combinatorial optimization problems (COPs). Consequently, dynamical system-inspired computing models and hardware platforms that minimize the Ising Hamiltonian, have…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-11-11 Mohammad Khairul Bashar , Nikhil Shukla

Online data has the potential to transform how researchers and companies produce election forecasts. Social media surveys, online panels and even comments scraped from the internet can offer valuable insights into political preferences.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-20 Alberto Arletti , Maria Letizia Tanturri , Omar Paccagnella

We propose a method to find out the community structure of a complex network. In this method the ground state problem of a ferromagnetic random field Ising model is considered on the network with the magnetic field $B_s = +\infty$, $B_{t} =…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Seung-Woo Son , Hawoong Jeong , Jae Dong Noh

Quantification of the political leaning of online news articles can aid in understanding the dynamics of political ideology in social groups and measures to mitigating them. However, predicting the accurate political leaning of a news…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Sadia Kamal , Jimmy Hartford , Jeremy Willis , Arunkumar Bagavathi

The only acceptable form of polling in the multi-billion dollar survey research field utilizes representative samples. We argue that with proper statistical adjustment, non-representative polling can provide accurate predictions, and often…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-07-01 David Rothschild , Sharad Goel , Andrew Gelman , Doug Rivers

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2016-10-27 Alison Nahm , Alex Pentland , Peter Krafft

Modern power systems face significant challenges in state estimation and real-time monitoring, particularly regarding response speed and accuracy under faulty conditions or cyber-attacks. This paper proposes a hybrid approach using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Solon Falas , Markos Asprou , Charalambos Konstantinou , Maria K. Michael

Generalized Ising models, also known as cluster expansions, are an important tool in many areas of condensed-matter physics and materials science, as they are often used in the study of lattice thermodynamics, solid-solid phase transitions,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-06-27 Wenxuan Huang , Daniil Kitchaev , Stephen Dacek , Ziqin Rong , Zhiwei Ding , Gerbrand Ceder

In this paper, we reconsider the spin model suggested recently to understand some features of collective decision making among higher organisms [A.T. Hartnett et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116 (2016) 038701]. Within the model, the state of an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-28 Petro Sarkanych , Mariana Krasnytska , Luis Gómez-Nava , Pawel Romanczuk , Yurij Holovatch

Computation with the Ising model is central to future computing technologies like quantum annealing, adiabatic quantum computing, and thermodynamic classical computing. Traditionally, computed values have been equated with ground states.…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-11-04 Andrew G. Moore

Quantum annealing is a heuristic algorithm for searching the ground state of an Ising model. Heuristic algorithms aim to obtain near-optimal solutions with a reasonable computation time. Accordingly, many algorithms have so far been…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-11-09 Shuntaro Okada , Masayuki Ohzeki

Election polls play a critical role in political discussions by probing public opinion and enabling political parties to assess their performance before elections. However, traditional polling methods sometimes fail to predict election…

This paper describes an algorithm for selecting a consistent set within the consistent histories approach to quantum mechanics and investigates its properties. The algorithm uses a maximum information principle to select from among the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-10-30 Jim McElwaine

Social media users express their political preferences via interaction with other users, by spontaneous declarations or by participation in communities within the network. This makes a social network such as Twitter a valuable data source…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Joseba Fernandez de Landa , Rodrigo Agerri

We propose and evaluate a quantum-inspired algorithm for solving Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problems, which are mathematically equivalent to finding ground states of Ising spin-glass Hamiltonians. The algorithm…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Max B. Zhao , Fei Li

Understanding and mitigating political bias in online social media platforms are crucial tasks to combat misinformation and echo chamber effects. However, characterizing political bias temporally using computational methods presents…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Srinath Sai Tripuraneni , Sadia Kamal , Arunkumar Bagavathi

Integrity of elections is vital to democratic systems, but it is frequently threatened by malicious actors. The study of algorithmic complexity of the problem of manipulating election outcomes by changing its structural features is known as…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-07-21 Andrew Estornell , Sanmay Das , Edith Elkind , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

A ``ballistic-search'' algorithm is presented which allows the identification of clusters (or funnels) of ground states in Ising spin glasses even for moderate system sizes. The clusters are defined to be sets of states, which are connected…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-31 Alexander K. Hartmann

In numerical modeling of the Earth System, many processes remain unknown or ill represented (let us quote sub-grid processes, the dependence to unknown latent variables or the non-inclusion of complex dynamics in numerical models) but…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-03-19 Julien Brajard , Anastase Charantonis , Jérôme Sirven