Related papers: Incorporating social opinion in the evolution of a…
The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread…
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced public health experts to develop contingent policies to stem the spread of infection, including measures such as partial/complete lockdowns. The effectiveness of these policies has varied with geography,…
Understanding the impact of collective social phenomena in epidemic dynamics is a crucial task to effectively contain the disease spread. In this work we build a mathematical description for assessing the interplay between opinion…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and…
The recent spreading of coronavirus made many countries impose restrictions in order to control its dangerous effect on the citizens. We developed a theoretical dynamical model based on compartmental SIR system with additional adjustment…
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
In this work we evaluate the applicability of an ensemble of population models and machine learning models to predict the near future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular use case in Spain. We rely solely in open and public…
After the recent COVID-19 outbreaks, it became increasingly evident that individuals' thoughts and beliefs can have a strong impact on disease transmission. It becomes therefore important to understand how information and opinions on…
Nowadays, social media is the main tool in our new lives. The outbreak news and all related obtained from social media, and mob events affect the of spread these news fast. Recently, epidemiological models to study disease spread and…
The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…
We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…
People's cooperation in adopting protective measures is effective in epidemic control and creates herd immunity as a public good. Similarly, the presence of an epidemic is a driving factor for the formation and improvement of cooperation.…
In this work we consider a model of epidemic spreading coupled with an opinion dynamics in a fully-connected population. Regarding the opinion dynamics, the individuals may be in two distinct states, namely in favor or against a vaccination…
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of…
The outbreak and propagation of COVID-19 have posed a considerable challenge to modern society. In particular, the different restrictive actions taken by governments to prevent the spread of the virus have changed the way humans interact…
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…