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We study the tail behavior for the maximum of discrete Gaussian free field on a 2D box with Dirichlet boundary condition after centering by its expectation. We show that it exhibits an exponential decay for the right tail and a double…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-26 Jian Ding

We study directed last passage percolation on the first quadrant of the planar square lattice whose weights have general distributions, or equivalently, ./G/1 queues in series. The service time distributions of the servers vary randomly…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-04 Hao Lin , Timo Seppäläinen

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

We consider the upper and lower tail probabilities for the centered (by time$/24$) and scaled (according to KPZ time$^{1/3}$ scaling) one-point distribution of the Cole-Hopf solution of the KPZ equation when started with initial data drawn…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-04 Ivan Corwin , Promit Ghosal

We study the upper tail of the number of arithmetic progressions of a given length in a random subset of {1,...,n}, establishing exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the exponent. The proof also extends to…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Lutz Warnke

We study atypically large fluctuations of height $H$ in the 1+1-dimensional Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation at long times $t$, when starting from a "droplet" initial condition. We derive exact large deviation function of height for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-06-13 Pavel Sasorov , Baruch Meerson , Sylvain Prolhac

We study the last passage time in geometric last passage percolation (LPP). As the system size increases, we derive precise large deviation probabilities -- up to and including the constant terms -- for both the lower and upper tails. A key…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Sung-Soo Byun , Christophe Charlier , Philippe Moreillon , Nick Simm

There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-05 Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung , Stilian Stoev

Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-11 Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

In this paper we consider the first passage percolation with identical and independent exponentially distributions, called the Eden growth model, and we study the upper tail large deviations for the first passage time ${\rm T}$. Our main…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Shuta Nakajima

We consider first-passage percolation on $\mathbb Z^2$ with independent and identically distributed weights whose common distribution is absolutely continuous with a finite exponential moment. Under the assumption that the limit shape has…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-31 Barbara Dembin , Dor Elboim , Ron Peled

Bi-infinite geodesics are fundamental objects of interest in planar first passage percolation. A longstanding conjecture states that under mild conditions there are almost surely no bigeodesics, however the result has not been proved in any…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-09 Riddhipratim Basu , Christopher Hoffman , Allan Sly

Extreme economic outcomes are not shaped by tails alone. They are also shaped by unequal access to opportunities. This paper develops a theory of heterogeneous extremes by taking the distribution of opportunity access as the object of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-24 I. Sebastian Buhai

We theoretically study quantum spin transport in a one-dimensional folded XXZ model with an alternating domain-wall initial state via the Bethe ansatz technique, exactly demonstrating that a probability distribution of finding a left-most…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-31 Kazuya Fujimoto , Tomohiro Sasamoto

In the classic model of first passage percolation, for pairs of vertices separated by a Euclidean distance $L$, geodesics exhibit deviations from their mean length $L$ that are of order $L^\chi$, while the transversal fluctuations, known as…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-11-14 Alexander P. Kartun-Giles , Marc Barthelemy , Carl P. Dettmann

We study the directed last-passage percolation model on the planar square lattice with nearest-neighbor steps and general i.i.d. weights on the vertices, outside of the class of exactly solvable models. Stationary cocycles are constructed…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-26 Nicos Georgiou , Firas Rassoul-Agha , Timo Seppäläinen

Modelling excesses over a high threshold using the Pareto or generalized Pareto distribution (PD/GPD) is the most popular approach in extreme value statistics. This method typically requires high thresholds in order for the (G)PD to fit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-13 Jan Beirlant , Elisabeth Joossens , Johan Segers

Consider first passage percolation with identical and independent weight distributions and first passage time ${\rm T}$. In this paper, we study the upper tail large deviations $\mathbb{P}({\rm T}(0,nx)>n(\mu+\xi))$, for $\xi>0$ and $x\neq…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-02 Clément Cosco , Shuta Nakajima

We report on the universality of height fluctuations at the crossing point of two interacting (1+1)-dimensional Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) interfaces with curved and flat initial conditions. We introduce a control parameter p as the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-02-15 Abbas Ali Saberi , Hor Dashti-N. , Joachim Krug

This paper is concerned with a general maximum principle for the fully coupled forward-backward stochastic optimal control problem with jumps, where the control domain is not necessarily convex, within the progressively measurable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-27 Bin Wang , Yu Si , Jingtao Shi
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