Related papers: Efficient Conformal Prediction via Cascaded Infere…
While existing depression prediction methods based on deep learning show promise, their practical application is hindered by the lack of trustworthiness, as these deep models are often deployed as black box models, leaving us uncertain on…
Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) provides a practical and effective approach for equipping deep learning models with uncertainty estimates in the form of set-valued predictions which are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with high…
Parallel reasoning, where a generator samples many candidate solutions and an aggregator selects the best, is one of the most effective forms of test-time scaling in large language models, and pairwise self-verification has become its…
In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…
This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression Neural Networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine…
We propose a multi-scale extension of conformal prediction, an approach that constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal statistical assumptions. Classic conformal prediction relies on a single notion of…
Decision making or scientific discovery pipelines such as job hiring and drug discovery often involve multiple stages: before any resource-intensive step, there is often an initial screening that uses predictions from a machine learning…
Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in many-class classification it may still under-cover specific classes or subpopulations, preventing safe deployment in high-stakes applications. We propose Cluster…
Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with finite-sample marginal coverage, but many applications require coverage guarantees that adapt to individual test points, a subpopulation, or a structural component of the data. Existing…
Matrix completion aims to estimate missing entries in a data matrix, using the assumption of a low-complexity structure (e.g., low rank) so that imputation is possible. While many effective estimation algorithms exist in the literature,…
We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…
Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns,…
Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…
We present Distribution-aware Conformal Prediction (DCP), a unified framework integrating probabilistic predictors like Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and quantile regression with score-agnostic conformal calibration to produce valid…
Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…
Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…
Conformal prediction is a distribution-free method that wraps a given machine learning model and returns a set of plausible labels that contain the true label with a prescribed coverage rate. In practice, the empirical coverage achieved…
Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size…