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Related papers: Probably Approximately Knowing

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This paper studies standard controller architectures for agentic AI and derives automata-theoretic models of their interaction behavior via trace semantics and abstraction. We model an agent implementation as a finite control program…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Roham Koohestani , Ziyou Li , Anton Podkopaev , Maliheh Izadi

Many multiagent applications require an agent to learn quickly how to interact with previously unknown other agents. To address this problem, researchers have studied learning algorithms which compute posterior beliefs over a hypothesised…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-07-12 Stefano V. Albrecht , Jacob W. Crandall , Subramanian Ramamoorthy

Human preferences in RLHF are typically modeled as a function of the human's reward function or corresponding optimal state-action values. In this work, we propose that human beliefs about the capabilities of the agent being trained also…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Sylee Dandekar , Shripad Deshmukh , Frank Chiu , W. Bradley Knox , Scott Niekum

If we could define the set of all bad outcomes, we could hard-code an agent which avoids them; however, in sufficiently complex environments, this is infeasible. We do not know of any general-purpose approaches in the literature to avoiding…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Michael K. Cohen , Marcus Hutter

Methods for learning optimal policies in autonomous agents often assume that the way the domain is conceptualised---its possible states and actions and their causal structure---is known in advance and does not change during learning. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-11 Craig Innes , Alex Lascarides , Stefano V Albrecht , Subramanian Ramamoorthy , Benjamin Rosman

We present a model for studying communities of epistemically interacting agents who update their belief states by averaging (in a specified way) the belief states of other agents in the community. The agents in our model have a rich belief…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-05-15 Sylvia Wenmackers , Danny E. P. Vanpoucke , Igor Douven

The general use of subjective probabilities to model belief has been justified using many axiomatic schemes. For example, ?consistent betting behavior' arguments are well-known. To those not already convinced of the unique fitness and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Paul Snow

A natural way to represent beliefs and the process of updating beliefs is presented by Bayesian probability theory, where belief of an agent a in P can be interpreted as a considering that P is more probable than not P. This paper attempts…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-07-28 Jan van Eijck , Kai Li

A key feature of human theory-of-mind is the ability to attribute beliefs to other agents as mentalistic explanations for their behavior. But given the wide variety of beliefs that agents may hold about the world and the rich language we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Lance Ying , Almog Hillel , Ryan Truong , Vikash K. Mansinghka , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Tan Zhi-Xuan

We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set $\P$ of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable $X$ takes on value $x$, given that the agent makes decisions using the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-11-27 Peter D. Grunwald , Joseph Y. Halpern

In imperfect-information games, agents must make decisions based on partial knowledge of the game state. The Belief Stochastic Game model addresses this challenge by delegating state estimation to the game model itself. This allows agents…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Achille Morenville , Éric Piette

We consider how an agent should update her beliefs when her beliefs are represented by a set P of probability distributions, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax criterion, perhaps the best-studied and most commonly-used…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-17 Peter D Grunwald , Joseph Y Halpern

In cooperative multiagent planning, it can often be beneficial for an agent to make commitments about aspects of its behavior to others, allowing them in turn to plan their own behaviors without taking the agent's detailed behavior into…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-03-16 Qi Zhang , Satinder Singh , Edmund Durfee

Can AI agents predict whether they will succeed at a task? We study agentic uncertainty by eliciting success probability estimates before, during, and after task execution. All results exhibit agentic overconfidence: some agents that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Jean Kaddour , Srijan Patel , Gbètondji Dovonon , Leo Richter , Pasquale Minervini , Matt J. Kusner

We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set P of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable X takes on value x, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-29 Peter D. Grunwald , Joseph Y. Halpern

We establish bounds on the probability that two different agents, who share an initial opinion expressed as a probability distribution on an abstract probability space, given two different sources of information, may come to radically…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-20 Krzysztof Burdzy , Jim Pitman

We study the problem of an agent continuously faced with the decision of placing or not placing trust in an institution. The agent makes use of Bayesian learning in order to estimate the institution's true trustworthiness and makes the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-06 Benedikt V. Meylahn , Arnoud V. den Boer , Michel Mandjes

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

We present a symbolic machinery that admits both probabilistic and causal information about a given domain and produces probabilistic statements about the effect of actions and the impact of observations. The calculus admits two types of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Judea Pearl

We describe human-subject laboratory experiments on probabilistic auctions based on previously proposed auction protocols involving the simulated manipulation and communication of quantum states. These auctions are probabilistic in…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-03-31 Kay-Yut Chen , Tad Hogg