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Mediation analysis has traditionally focused on outcome-level summary contrasts, such as mean effects, which may obscure substantial distributional changes induced by complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms. We propose Distributional Causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jinlun Zhang , Haoneng Huang , Zishu Zhan , Chunquan Ou

Mediation analyses are a statistical tool for testing the hypothesis about how the relationship between two variables may be direct or indirect via a third variable. Assessing statistical significance has been an area of active research;…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-07 Jason Steffener

Causal decomposition has provided a powerful tool to analyze health disparity problems, by assessing the proportion of disparity caused by each mediator. However, most of these methods lack \emph{policy implications}, as they fail to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xinwei Sun , Xiangyu Zheng , Jim Weinstein

In the statistical literature, a number of methods have been proposed to ensure valid inference about marginal effects of variables on a longitudinal outcome in settings with irregular monitoring times. However, the potential biases due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Janie Coulombe , Erica E M Moodie , Robert W Platt

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

Empirical researchers are often interested in not only whether a treatment affects an outcome of interest, but also how the treatment effect arises. Causal mediation analysis provides a formal framework to identify causal mechanisms through…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-01 Bora Kim

Environmental health studies are increasingly measuring endogenous omics data ($\boldsymbol{M}$) to study intermediary biological pathways by which an exogenous exposure ($\boldsymbol{A}$) affects a health outcome ($\boldsymbol{Y}$), given…

We investigate the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment variable on an outcome in the presence of a latent confounder. We first show that the causal effect is identifiable under certain conditions when data is available from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yaroslav Kivva , Sina Akbari , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

This paper develops a sparsity-inducing version of Bayesian Causal Forests, a recently proposed nonparametric causal regression model that employs Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and is specifically designed to estimate heterogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-17 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

Mediation analysis for survival outcomes is challenging. Most existing methods quantify the treatment effect using the hazard ratio (HR) and attempt to decompose the HR into the direct effect of treatment plus an indirect, or mediated,…

Mediation analysis aims to identify and estimate the effect of an exposure on an outcome that is mediated through one or more intermediate variables. In the presence of multiple intermediate variables, two pertinent methodological questions…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-06 Allan Jérolon , Flora Alarcon , Florence Pittion , Magali Richard , Olivier François , Etienne E. Birmelé , Vittorio Perduca

Causal mediation analyses investigate the mechanisms through which causes exert their effects, and are therefore central to scientific progress. The literature on the non-parametric definition and identification of mediational effects in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-13 Richard Liu , Nicholas T. Williams , Kara E. Rudolph , Iván Díaz

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

In experimental and observational data settings, researchers often have limited knowledge of the reasons for missing outcomes. To address this uncertainty, we propose bounds on causal effects for missing outcomes, accommodating the scenario…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Max Rubinstein , Denis Agniel , Larry Han , Marcela Horvitz-Lennon , Sharon-Lise Normand

Mediation analysis is widely used for exploring treatment mechanisms; however, it faces challenges when nonignorable missing confounders are present. Efficient inference of mediation effects and the efficiency loss due to nonignorable…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Shan , Wei Li , Chunrong Ai

We consider assessing causal mediation in the presence of a post-treatment event (examples include noncompliance, a clinical event, or death). We identify natural mediation effects for the entire study population and for each principal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Many open problems in machine learning are intrinsically related to causality, however, the use of causal analysis in machine learning is still in its early stage. Within a general reinforcement learning setting, we consider the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Tue Herlau , Rasmus Larsen

Inferring causality using longitudinal observational databases is challenging due to the passive way the data are collected. The majority of associations found within longitudinal observational data are often non-causal and occur due to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Jenna Reps , Uwe Aickelin

Substantial advances in Bayesian methods for causal inference have been developed in recent years. We provide an introduction to Bayesian inference for causal effects for practicing statisticians who have some familiarity with Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-12 Arman Oganisian , Jason A. Roy

Meta-analysis is commonly used to combine results from multiple clinical trials, but traditional meta-analysis methods do not refer explicitly to a population of individuals to whom the results apply and it is not clear how to use their…