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This paper presents a stochastic model predictive controller (SMPC) for linear time-invariant systems in the presence of additive disturbances. The distribution of the disturbance is unknown and is assumed to have a bounded support. A…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-03 Hotae Lee , Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Francesco Borrelli

Stochastic simulation models effectively capture complex system dynamics but are often too slow for real-time decision-making. Traditional metamodeling techniques learn relationships between simulator inputs and a single output summary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 L. Jeff Hong , Yanxi Hou , Qingkai Zhang , Xiaowei Zhang

We propose a novel method for gradient-based optimization of black-box simulators using differentiable local surrogate models. In fields such as physics and engineering, many processes are modeled with non-differentiable simulators with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-30 Sergey Shirobokov , Vladislav Belavin , Michael Kagan , Andrey Ustyuzhanin , Atılım Güneş Baydin

This paper presents a general framework for the estimation of regression models with circular covariates, where the conditional distribution of the response given the covariate can be specified through a parametric model. The estimation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-06 María Alonso-Pena , Irène Gijbels , Rosa M. Crujeiras

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-16 Christian L. E. Franzke , Terence J. O'Kane , Judith Berner , Paul D. Williams , Valerio Lucarini

Complex phenomena in engineering and the sciences are often modeled with computationally intensive feed-forward simulations for which a tractable analytic likelihood does not exist. In these cases, it is sometimes necessary to estimate an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Niccolò Dalmasso , Ann B. Lee , Rafael Izbicki , Taylor Pospisil , Ilmun Kim , Chieh-An Lin

In the presence of multiscale dynamics in a reaction network, direct simulation methods become inefficient as they can only advance the system on the smallest scale. This work presents stochastic averaging techniques to accelerate…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-23 Araz Hashemi , Marcel Nunez , Petr Plechac , Dionisios G. Vlachos

In statistics, it is important to have realistic data sets available for a particular context to allow an appropriate and objective method comparison. For many use cases, benchmark data sets for method comparison are already available…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-30 Maria Thurow , Ina Dormuth , Christina Sauer , Marc Ditzhaus , Markus Pauly

Engineering disciplines often rely on extensive simulations to ensure that structures are designed to withstand harsh conditions while avoiding over-engineering for unlikely scenarios. Assessments such as Serviceability Limit State (SLS)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Vegard Flovik , Sebastian Winter , Christian Agrell

An efficient, generalizable physical simulator with universal uncertainty estimates has wide applications in robot state estimation, planning, and control. In this paper, we build such a simulator for two scenarios, planar pushing and ball…

Stochastic approximation is a framework unifying many random iterative algorithms occurring in a diverse range of applications. The stability of the process is often difficult to verify in practical applications and the process may even be…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-10 Christophe Andrieu , Matti Vihola

Stochastic Spatio-Temporal processes are prevalent across domains ranging from modeling of plasma to the turbulence in fluids to the wave function of quantum systems. This letter studies a measure-theoretic description of such systems by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-25 George I. Boutselis , Ethan N. Evans , Marcus A. Pereira , Evangelos A. Theodorou

Increasing effort is put into the development of methods for learning mechanistic models from data. This task entails not only the accurate estimation of parameters but also a suitable model structure. Recent work on the discovery of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Justin N. Kreikemeyer , Philipp Andelfinger , Adelinde M. Uhrmacher

This work suggests several methods of uncertainty treatment in multiscale modelling and describes their application to a system of coupled turbulent transport simulations of a tokamak plasma. We propose a method to quantify the usually…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2023-07-10 Yehor Yudin , David Coster , Udo von Toussaint , Frank Jenko

We present a hybrid sampling-surrogate approach for reducing the computational expense of uncertainty quantification in nonlinear dynamical systems. Our motivation is to enable rapid uncertainty quantification in complex mechanical systems…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-27 Hang Yang , Yuji Fujii , K. W. Wang , Alex A. Gorodetsky

Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used to emulate propagation uncertainty in computer experiments. GP emulation sits comfortably within an analytically tractable Bayesian framework. Apart from propagating uncertainty of the input…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-30 Silvia Montagna , Surya T. Tokdar

We study maximum likelihood estimation for spatial generalized linear mixed models with Gaussian process approximations using a stochastic Newton-Raphson algorithm. We consider two Gaussian Process approximations in this context: spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Samuel I. Watson , Yixin Wang , Emanuele Giorgi

Stochastic reaction networks are mathematical models with a wide range of applications in biochemistry, ecology, and epidemiology, and are often complex to analyze. Except for some special cases, it is generally difficult to predict how the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Daniele Cappelletti , Giulio Cuniberti , Paola Siri

Stochastic dominance serves as a general framework for modeling a broad spectrum of decision preferences under uncertainty, with risk aversion as one notable example, as it naturally captures the intrinsic structure of the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Shicong Cen , Jincheng Mei , Hanjun Dai , Dale Schuurmans , Yuejie Chi , Bo Dai

Gaussian process (GP) emulators have become essential tools for approximating complex simulators, significantly reducing computational demands in optimization, sensitivity analysis, and model calibration. While traditional GP emulators…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-26 Deyu Ming , Daniel Williamson