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The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity…
Invasion of new territories by alien organisms is of primary concern for environmental and health agencies and has been a core topic in mathematical modeling, in particular in the intents of reconstructing the past dynamics of the alien…
Invasive pest establishment is a pervasive threat to global ecosystems, agriculture, and public health. The recent establishment of the invasive spotted lanternfly in the northeastern United States has proven devastating to farms and…
Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy, and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by…
Citizen science mobilises many observers and gathers huge datasets but often without strict sampling protocols, resulting in observation biases due to heterogeneous sampling effort, which can lead to biased statistical inferences. We…
The spread of invasive species can have far reaching environmental and ecological consequences. Understanding invasion spread patterns and the underlying process driving invasions are key to predicting and managing invasions. We combine a…
The spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) has recently spread from its native range to several other countries and forecasts predict that it may become a global invasive pest. In particular, since its confirmed presence in the United…
The analysis of diffusion processes in real-world propagation scenarios often involves estimating variables that are not directly observed. These hidden variables include parental relationships, the strengths of connections between nodes,…
We consider a dynamic version of the Neyman contagious point process that can be used for modelling the spacial dynamics of biological populations, including species invasion scenarios. Starting with an arbitrary finite initial…
Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an outbreak. Whereas host population data is typically available, for novel disease introductions…
Count data occur widely in many bio-surveillance and healthcare applications, e.g., the numbers of new patients of different types of infectious diseases from different cities/counties/states repeatedly over time, say, daily/weekly/monthly.…
Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases,…
I present three models of plant--pathogen interactions. The models are stochastic and spatially explicit at the scale of individual plants. For each model, I use a version of pair approximation or moment closure along with a separation of…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information…
Disease propagation between countries strongly depends on their effective distance, a measure derived from the world air transportation network (WAN). It reduces the complex spreading patterns of a pandemic to a wave-like propagation from…
Presence-only data, point locations where a species has been recorded as being present, are often used in modeling the distribution of a species as a function of a set of explanatory variables---whether to map species occurrence, to…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
Wastewater monitoring is an effective approach for the early detection of viral and bacterial disease outbreaks. It has recently been used to identify the presence of individuals infected with COVID-19. To monitor large communities and…
The rise of the World Airline Network over the past century has lead to sharp changes in our notions of `distance' and `closeness' - both in terms of trade and travel, but also (less desirably) with respect to the spread of disease. When…