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We use a simulation study to compare three methods for adaptive experimentation: Thompson sampling, Tempered Thompson sampling, and Exploration sampling. We gauge the performance of each in terms of social welfare and estimation accuracy,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-05 Samantha Horn , Sabina J. Sloman

Split-plot designs find wide applicability in multifactor experiments with randomization restrictions. Practical considerations often warrant the use of unbalanced designs. This paper investigates randomization based causal inference in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Rahul Mukerjee , Tirthankar Dasgupta

The statistical problem of parameter estimation in partially observed hypoelliptic diffusion processes is naturally occurring in many applications. However, due to the noise structure, where the noise components of the different coordinates…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-13 Susanne Ditlevsen , Adeline Samson

Some Hermite-Hadamard's mid-point type inequalities related to Katugampola fractional integrals are obtained where the first derivative of considered mappings is Lipschitzian or convex. Also some mid-point type inequalities are given for…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2019-02-21 M. Rostamian Delavar

We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-01 Sergios Agapiou , Gareth O. Roberts , Sebastian J. Vollmer

We aim to create the highest possible quality of treatment-control matches for categorical data in the potential outcomes framework. Matching methods are heavily used in the social sciences due to their interpretability, but most matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-11 Yameng Liu , Aw Dieng , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

We show that the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator that is importance sampled from an exponential family is a convex function of the natural parameter of the distribution. With this insight, we propose an adaptive importance sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-12 Ernest K. Ryu , Stephen P. Boyd

A popular method for variance reduction in observational causal inference is propensity-based trimming, the practice of removing units with extreme propensities from the sample. This practice has theoretical grounding when the data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-30 Samir Khan , Johan Ugander

Integrating non-probability samples into finite-population inference typically requires modeling unknown selection probabilities under a missing-at-random (MAR) assumption that is difficult to verify. We propose a design-based alternative…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Andrius Čiginas , Ieva Burakauskaitė , Jae Kwang Kim

We present an exponentially convergent numerical method to approximate the solution of the Cauchy problem for the inhomogeneous fractional differential equation with an unbounded operator coefficient and Caputo fractional derivative in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-08 Dmytro Sytnyk , Barbara Wohlmuth

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-09 Adrien Corenflos , Matthew Sutton , Nicolas Chopin

The concentration of measure phenomenon may be summarized as follows: a function of many weakly dependent random variables that is not too sensitive to any of its individual arguments will tend to take values very close to its expectation.…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-18 Aryeh Kontorovich , Maxim Raginsky

Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-26 Xiuyuan Lu , Benjamin Van Roy

For a process governed by a linear Ito stochastic differential equation of the form dX(t)=[a(t)+b(t)X(t)]dt + \sigma(t)dW(t) we prove an existence of optimal sampling designs with strictly increasing sampling times. We derive an asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-11 V. Lacko

For the purpose of causal inference we employ a stochastic model of the data generating process, utilizing individual propensity probabilities for the treatment, and also individual and counterfactual prognosis probabilities for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Brian Knaeble , Mehdi Hakim-Hashemi , Mark A. Abramson

Stochastic optimization techniques are standard in variational inference algorithms. These methods estimate gradients by approximating expectations with independent Monte Carlo samples. In this paper, we explore a technique that uses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Mike Wu , Noah Goodman , Stefano Ermon

This work introduces a sampling method capable of solving Bayesian inverse problems in function space. It does not assume the log-concavity of the likelihood, meaning that it is compatible with nonlinear inverse problems. The method…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Lorenzo Baldassari , Ali Siahkoohi , Josselin Garnier , Knut Solna , Maarten V. de Hoop

We investigate the issue of parameter estimation with nonuniform negative sampling for imbalanced data. We first prove that, with imbalanced data, the available information about unknown parameters is only tied to the relatively small…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-26 HaiYing Wang , Aonan Zhang , Chong Wang

Subsampling techniques can reduce the computational costs of processing big data. Practical subsampling plans typically involve initial uniform sampling and refined sampling. With a subsample, big data inferences are generally built on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 Yan Fan , Yang Liu , Yukun Liu , Jing Qin

We present a new and simple approach to concentration inequalities for functions around their expectation with respect to non-product measures, i.e., for dependent random variables. Our method is based on coupling ideas and does not use…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 J. -R. Chazottes , P. Collet , C. Kuelske , F. Redig