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Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are probabilistic and non-parametric…

Clinical prediction models are increasingly used to support patient care, yet many deep learning-based approaches remain unstable, as their predictions can vary substantially when trained on different samples from the same population. Such…

We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…

In many applications of computer vision it is important to accurately estimate the trajectory of an object over time by fusing data from a number of sources, of which 2D and 3D imagery is only one. In this paper, we show how to use a deep…

We construct realistic equity option market simulators based on generative adversarial networks (GANs). We consider recurrent and temporal convolutional architectures, and assess the impact of state compression. Option market simulators are…

Physical systems can often be described via a continuous-time dynamical system. In practice, the true system is often unknown and has to be learned from measurement data. Since data is typically collected in discrete time, e.g. by sensors,…

Generative control policies have recently unlocked major progress in robotics. These methods produce action sequences via diffusion or flow matching, with training data provided by demonstrations. But existing methods come with two key…

We develop deep Poisson-gamma dynamical systems (DPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data, improving previously proposed models by not only mining deep hierarchical latent structure from the data, but also capturing…

While Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift (PEAD) is one of the most studied stock market anomalies, the current literature is often limited in explaining this phenomenon by a small number of factors using simpler regression methods. In this…

This paper presents a data-driven interpretable machine learning algorithm for semi-static hedging of Exchange Traded options, considering transaction costs with efficient run-time. Further, we provide empirical evidence on the performance…

This paper shows a novel machine learning model for realized volatility (RV) prediction using a normalizing flow, an invertible neural network. Since RV is known to be skewed and have a fat tail, previous methods transform RV into values…

We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…

In this chapter we first briefly review the existing approaches to hedging in rough volatility models. Next, we present a simple but general result which shows that in a one-factor rough stochastic volatility model, any option may be…

The cryptocurrency market is volatile, non-stationary and non-continuous. Together with liquid derivatives markets, this poses a unique opportunity to study risk management, especially the hedging of options, in a turbulent market. We study…

Fluctuations in the stock market rapidly shape the economic world and consumer markets, impacting millions of individuals. Hence, accurately forecasting it is essential for mitigating risks, including those associated with inactivity.…

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are increasingly popular as predictive models in machine learning (ML) for their non-stationary flexibility and ability to cope with abrupt regime changes in training data. Here we explore DGPs as surrogates…

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

It is known that the implied volatility skew of FX options demonstrates a stochastic behavior which is called stochastic skew. In this paper we create stochastic skew by assuming the spot/instantaneous variance correlation to be stochastic.…

Functions of chemical composition are complex and discrete in nature making it impossible to optimize them with gradient methods. Genetic algorithms, which do not use derivative information, are used to maximize the thermal conductivity of…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric Bayesian regression models that allow exact posterior inference, but exhibit high computational and memory costs. In order to improve scalability of GPs, approximate posterior inference…