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Probabilistic forecasting of power consumption in a middle-term horizon (months to a year) is a main challenge in the energy sector. It plays a key role in planning future generation plants and transmission grid. We propose a new model that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-20 Roberto Baviera , Giuseppe Messuti

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Abhishek Maity , Viraj Tukarul

Electricity consumption has increased exponentially during the past few decades. This increase is heavily burdening the electricity distributors. Therefore, predicting the future demand for electricity consumption will provide an upper hand…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-19 Anupiya Nugaliyadde , Upeka Somaratne , Kok Wai Wong

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-05 Kostas Hatalis , Alberto J. Lamadrid , Katya Scheinberg , Shalinee Kishore

Forecasting power consumptions of integrated electrical, heat or gas network systems is essential in order to operate more efficiently the whole energy network. Multi-energy systems are increasingly seen as a key component of future energy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Corneliu Arsene , Alessandra Parisio

Daily electricity consumption forecasting is a classical problem. Existing forecasting algorithms tend to have decreased accuracy on special dates like holidays. This study decomposes the daily electricity consumption series into three…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Zhou Lan , Ben Liu , Yi Feng , Danhuang Dong , Peng Zhang

Using hourly energy consumption data recorded by smart meters, retailers can estimate the day-ahead energy consumption of their customer portfolio. Deep neural networks are especially suited for this task as a huge amount of historical…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-06 Oliver Mey , André Schneider , Olaf Enge-Rosenblatt , Yesnier Bravo , Pit Stenzel

Electricity load forecasting plays an important role in the energy planning such as generation and distribution. However, the nonlinearity and dynamic uncertainties in the smart grid environment are the main obstacles in forecasting…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-11-09 Faisal Mohammad , Ki Boem Lee , Young-Chon Kim

It is crucial today that economies harness renewable energies and integrate them into the existing grid. Conventionally, energy has been generated based on forecasts of peak and low demands. Renewable energy can neither be produced on…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-02 Alexey Györi , Mathis Niederau , Violett Zeller , Volker Stich

The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Michela Moschella , Mauro Tucci , Emanuele Crisostomi , Alessandro Betti

The smart metering infrastructure has changed how electricity is measured in both residential and industrial application. The large amount of data collected by smart meter per day provides a huge potential for analytics to support the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-31 Nameer Al Khafaf , Mahdi Jalili , Peter Sokolowski

Electricity is a volatile power source that requires great planning and resource management for both short and long term. More specifically, in the short-term, accurate instant energy consumption forecasting contributes greatly to improve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Nuno Oliveira , Norberto Sousa , Isabel Praça

The high penetration of volatile renewable energy sources such as solar make methods for coping with the uncertainty associated with them of paramount importance. Probabilistic forecasts are an example of these methods, as they assist…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-21 Vinayak Sharma , Jorge Angel Gonzalez Ordiano , Ralf Mikut , Umit Cali

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Aleksei Kychkin , Georgios C. Chasparis

How can short-term energy consumption be accurately forecasted when sensor data is noisy, incomplete, and lacks contextual richness? This question guided our participation in the \textit{2025 Competition on Electric Energy Consumption…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Sarah Al-Shareeda , Gulcihan Ozdemir , Heung Seok Jeon , Khaleel Ahmad

The energy market relies on forecasting capabilities of both demand and power generation that need to be kept in dynamic balance. Today, when it comes to renewable energy generation, such decisions are increasingly made in a liberalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Odin Foldvik Eikeland , Finn Dag Hovem , Tom Eirik Olsen , Matteo Chiesa , Filippo Maria Bianchi

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-05 Mariana Clare , Omar Jamil , Cyril Morcrette

Electricity consumption forecasting has important implications for the mineral companies on guiding quarterly work, normal power system operation, and the management. However, electricity consumption prediction for the mineral company is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-05 Youshan Zhang , Qi Li

With the development of modern information technology (IT), a smart grid has become one of the major components of smart cities. To take full advantage of the smart grid, the capability of intelligent scheduling and planning of electricity…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-03-01 Hao Song , Yu Chen , Ning Zhou , Genshe Chen

Each year a growing number of wind farms are being added to power grids to generate electricity. The power curve of a wind turbine, which exhibits the relationship between generated power and wind speed, plays a major role in assessing the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Farzad Karami , Nasser Kehtarnavaz , Mario Rotea
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