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The goal of this paper is certifying safety of dynamical systems subject to uncertainty. Existing approaches use trajectory data to estimate transition probabilities, and compute safety probabilities recursively via dynamic programming…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Oliver Schön , Licio Romao , Sadegh Soudjani

An exciting recent development is the uptake of deep neural networks in many scientific fields, where the main objective is outcome prediction with the black-box nature. Significance testing is promising to address the black-box issue and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Ben Dai , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

Robust waypoint prediction is crucial for mobile robots operating in open-world, safety-critical settings. While Imitation Learning (IL) methods have demonstrated great success in practice, they are susceptible to distribution shifts: the…

The minimum error entropy (MEE) criterion has been verified as a powerful approach for non-Gaussian signal processing and robust machine learning. However, the implementation of MEE on robust classification is rather a vacancy in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-07 Yuanhao Li , Badong Chen , Natsue Yoshimura , Yasuharu Koike

Exploiting stochastic path integral theory, we obtain \emph{by simulation} substantial gains in efficiency for the computation of reaction rates in one-dimensional, bistable, overdamped stochastic systems. Using a well-defined measure of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-09-08 Daniel M. Zuckerman , Thomas B. Woolf

Despite empirical risk minimization (ERM) is widely applied in the machine learning community, its performance is limited on data with spurious correlation or subpopulation that is introduced by hidden attributes. Existing literature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Hongyu Shen , Zhizhen Zhao

Balancing safety and efficiency when planning in crowded scenarios with uncertain dynamics is challenging where it is imperative to accomplish the robot's mission without incurring any safety violations. Typically, chance constraints are…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Khaled A. Mustafa , Oscar de Groot , Xinwei Wang , Jens Kober , Javier Alonso-Mora

This paper presents a tool for addressing a key component in many algorithms for planning robot trajectories under uncertainty: evaluation of the safety of a robot whose actions are governed by a closed-loop feedback policy near a nominal…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-06-05 Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

This article provides a critical review of the main methods used to produce conservative estimators of probabilities of rare events, or critical failures, for reliability and certification studies in the broadest sense. These probabilities…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-27 Nicolas Bousquet

Rare events are occurrences that take place with a significantly lower frequency than more common regular events. In manufacturing, predicting such events is particularly important, as they lead to unplanned downtime, shortening equipment…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Chathurangi Shyalika , Ruwan Wickramarachchi , Fadi El Kalach , Ramy Harik , Amit Sheth

Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated significant potential across various safety-critical applications, yet ensuring its robustness remains a key challenge. While adversarial robustness has been extensively studied in worst-case scenarios,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Xingyu Zhao

Optimization in the latent space of variational autoencoders is a promising approach to generate high-dimensional discrete objects that maximize an expensive black-box property (e.g., drug-likeness in molecular generation, function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-02 Pascal Notin , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Yarin Gal

Many software engineering tasks, such as testing, and anomaly detection can benefit from the ability to infer a behavioral model of the software.Most existing inference approaches assume access to code to collect execution sequences. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Foozhan Ataiefard , Mohammad Jafar Mashhadi , Hadi Hemmati , Niel Walkinshaw

Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Björn Lütjens , Michael Everett , Jonathan P. How

Package monitoring is an important topic in industrial applications, with significant implications for operational efficiency and ecological sustainability. In this study, we propose an approach that employs an embedded system, placed on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Manon Renault , Hamoud Younes , Hugo Tessier , Ronan Le Roy , Bastien Pasdeloup , Mathieu Léonardon

Spatial-temporal reasoning is a challenging task in Artificial Intelligence (AI) due to its demanding but unique nature: a theoretic requirement on representing and reasoning based on spatial-temporal knowledge in mind, and an applied…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-17 Chi Zhang , Baoxiong Jia , Song-Chun Zhu , Yixin Zhu

Nested Sampling is a method for computing the Bayesian evidence, also called the marginal likelihood, which is the integral of the likelihood with respect to the prior. More generally, it is a numerical probabilistic quadrature rule. The…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-09 Jonas Latz , Doris Schneider , Philipp Wacker

Existing black-box portfolio management systems are prevalent in the financial industry due to commercial and safety constraints, though their performance can fluctuate dramatically with changing market regimes. Evaluating these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Zinuo You , John Cartlidge , Karen Elliott , Menghan Ge , Daniel Gold

This thesis studies advanced probabilistic models, including both their theoretical foundations and practical applications, for different semi-supervised learning (SSL) tasks. The proposed probabilistic methods are able to improve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Jianfeng Wang

We propose a novel information-theoretic approach for Bayesian optimization called Predictive Entropy Search (PES). At each iteration, PES selects the next evaluation point that maximizes the expected information gained with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-11 José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Matthew W. Hoffman , Zoubin Ghahramani
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