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We present a true-dynamics-agnostic, statistically rigorous framework for establishing exponential stability and safety guarantees of closed-loop, data-driven nonlinear control. Central to our approach is the novel concept of conformal…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-12 Ting-Wei Hsu , Hiroyasu Tsukamoto

Statistical analysis of extremes can be used to predict the probability of future extreme events, such as large rainfalls or devastating windstorms. The quality of these forecasts can be measured through scoring rules. Locally scale…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-22 Helga Kristin Olafsdottir , Holger Rootzén , David Bolin

We benchmark the robustness of maximum likelihood based uncertainty estimation methods to outliers in training data for regression tasks. Outliers or noisy labels in training data results in degraded performances as well as incorrect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Deebul S. Nair , Nico Hochgeschwender , Miguel A. Olivares-Mendez

The robustness of neural networks to adversarial examples has received great attention due to security implications. Despite various attack approaches to crafting visually imperceptible adversarial examples, little has been developed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-01 Tsui-Wei Weng , Huan Zhang , Pin-Yu Chen , Jinfeng Yi , Dong Su , Yupeng Gao , Cho-Jui Hsieh , Luca Daniel

Worst-case risk measures refer to the calculation of the largest value for risk measures when only partial information of the underlying distribution is available. For the popular risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-15 Jonathan Yu-Meng Li

Robust test statistics for the two-way MANOVA based on the minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimator are proposed as alternatives to the classical Wilks' Lambda test statistics which are well known to be very sensitive to outliers as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-12 Bernhard Spangl

This paper examines the precision of estimators of Quantile-Based Risk Measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall, Spectral Risk Measures). It first addresses the question of how to estimate the precision of these estimators, and proposes…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-30 Kevin Dowd , John Cotter

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Sam Allen , Jonathan Koh , Johan Segers , Johanna Ziegel

Among the different possible strategies for evaluating the reliability of individual predictions of classifiers, robustness quantification stands out as a method that evaluates how much uncertainty a classifier could cope with before…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Rodrigo F. L. Lassance , Jasper De Bock

We provide a new computationally-efficient class of estimators for risk minimization. We show that these estimators are robust for general statistical models: in the classical Huber epsilon-contamination model and in heavy-tailed settings.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-23 Adarsh Prasad , Arun Sai Suggala , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Pradeep Ravikumar

We provide a new characterization of law-invariant backward stochastic differential equations (i.e. BSDEs) with quadratic growth. This answers the open question raised in Xu--Xu--Zhou (2022) on necessary conditions for law-invariance of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-16 Zakaria Bensaid , Roxana Dumitrescu , Anis Matoussi , Wissal Sabbagh

High sensitivity of neural networks against malicious perturbations on inputs causes security concerns. To take a steady step towards robust classifiers, we aim to create neural network models provably defended from perturbations. Prior…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-11-02 Yusuke Tsuzuku , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

In our recent research endeavors, we have delved into the realm of tail bounds problems concerning bivariate random tensor means. In this context, tensors are treated as finite-dimensional operators. However, the longstanding challenge of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-15 Shih-Yu Chang

Given measurements from sensors and a set of standard forces, an optimization based approach to identify weakness in structures is introduced. The key novelty lies in letting the load and measurements to be random variables. Subsequently…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-22 Facundo N. Airaudo , Harbir Antil , Rainald Löhner , Umarkhon Rakhimov

We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-10-04 Igor Halperin

This paper introduces a new method for testing the statistical significance of estimated parameters in predictive regressions. The approach features a new family of test statistics that are robust to the degree of persistence of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 Jean-Yves Pitarakis

We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-22 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

We develop two new estimators for a general class of stationary GARCH models with possibly heavy tailed asymmetrically distributed errors, covering processes with symmetric and asymmetric feedback like GARCH, Asymmetric GARCH, VGARCH and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-29 Jonathan B. Hill

Recent experiments have reached detection efficiencies sufficient to close the detection loophole, testing the Clauser-Horne (CH) version of Bell's inequality. For a similar future experiment to be completely loophole-free, it will be…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-05-21 Peter Bierhorst