Related papers: Quantitative Statistical Robustness for Tail-Depen…
We generalize Quasi-Linear Means by restricting to the tail of the risk distribution and show that this can be a useful quantity in risk management since it comprises in its general form the Value at Risk, the Tail Value at Risk and the…
The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…
We propose a robust hypothesis testing procedure for the predictability of multiple predictors that could be highly persistent. Our method improves the popular extended instrumental variable (IVX) testing (Phillips and Lee, 2013; Kostakis…
In this paper, we refine and generalize closed forms for worst-case law invariant convex risk measures with uncertainty sets based on: i) closed balls under $p$-norms and Wasserstein distance; and ii) moment constraints involving mean and…
Two key tasks in high-dimensional regularized regression are tuning the regularization strength for accurate predictions and estimating the out-of-sample risk. It is known that the standard approach -- $k$-fold cross-validation -- is…
In this paper, we study general monetary risk measures (without any convexity or weak convexity). A monetary (respectively, positively homogeneous) risk measure can be characterized as the lower envelope of a family of convex (respectively,…
We develop Wasserstein-based hypothesis tests for empirical-measure convergence in stationary dependent sequences. For a known candidate invariant measure, $\mu$, we study the statistic $T_n=\sqrt{n}\,W_1(\hat\mu_n,\mu)$ and establish…
Quantiles and expectiles, which are two important concepts and tools in tail risk measurements, can be regarded as an extension of median and mean, respectively. Both of these tail risk measurers can actually be embedded in a common…
We introduce a new stochastic order for the tail dependence between random variables. We then study different measures of tail dependence which are monotone in the proposed order, thereby extending various known tail dependence coefficients…
This paper proposes a versatile covariate adjustment method that directly incorporates covariate balance in regression discontinuity (RD) designs. The new empirical entropy balancing method reweights the standard local polynomial RD…
We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…
Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…
We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance…
Tail dependence refers to clustering of extreme events. In the context of financial risk management, the clustering of high-severity risks has a devastating effect on the well-being of firms and is thus of pivotal importance in risk…
``Localization'' has proven to be a valuable tool in the Statistical Learning literature as it allows sharp risk bounds in terms of the problem geometry. Localized bounds seem to be much less exploited in the Stochastic Optimization…
We propose a new measure related with tail dependence in terms of correlation: quantile correlation coefficient of random variables X, Y. The quantile correlation is defined by the geometric mean of two quantile regression slopes of X on Y…
This paper considers the specification of covariance structures with tail estimates. We focus on two aspects: (i) the estimation of the VaR-CoVaR risk matrix in the case of larger number of time series observations than assets in a…
Robust regression aims to develop methods for estimating an unknown regression function in the presence of outliers, heavy-tailed distributions, or contaminated data, which can severely impact performance. Most existing theoretical results…
The minimax risk is often considered as a gold standard against which we can compare specific statistical procedures. Nevertheless, as has been observed recently in robust and heavy-tailed estimation problems, the inherent reduction of the…
This paper provides comprehensive simulation results on the finite sample properties of the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test by Diebold and Mariano (1995) and the model confidence set (MCS) testing procedure by Hansen et al. (2011) applied to the…