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Related papers: Epidemic models with varying infectivity

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We study epidemic models where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the infection age (the elapsed time of infection). To describe the epidemic evolution dynamics, we use a stochastic process that tracks the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-02 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection. In contrast to classical compartment models, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Raphaël Forien , Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Arsene Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection (generalized SIS model). Specifically, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Arsene-Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-31 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

In this paper, we prove functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for a stochastic epidemic model with varying infectivity and general infectious periods recently introduced in Forien, Pang and Pardoux (2020).The infectivity process (total…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-13 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

In this survey paper, we review the recent advances in individual based non--Markovian epidemic models. They include epidemic models with a constant infectivity rate, varying infectivity rate or infection-age dependent infectivity,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Raphael Forien , Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study non-Markovian stochastic epidemic models (SIS, SIR, SIRS, and SEIR), in which the infectious (and latent/exposing, immune) periods have a general distribution. We provide a representation of the evolution dynamics using the time…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-25 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-05-14 Joel Miller , Bahman Davoudi , Rafael Meza , Anja Slim , Babak Pourbohloul

A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-29 Åke Svensson

We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

This paper presents a law of large numbers result, as the size of the population tends to infinity, of SIR stochastic epidemic models, for a population distributed over $L$ distinct patches (with migrations between them) and $K$ distinct…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-24 Raphaël Forien , Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux

We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…

Biological Physics · Physics 2020-12-25 Tânia Tomé , Mário J. de Oliveira

We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-08 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky

We study the stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity for which a measure-valued process is used to describe the ages of infection for each individual. We establish a functional law of large numbers (FLLN) and…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-28 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-06 Anicet Mougabe-Peurkor , Étienne Pardoux , Ténan Yeo

In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Armand Kanga , Etienne Pardoux

The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-03-29 Rossella Della Marca , Nadia Loy , Andrea Tosin

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-09-20 Jonathan A. Chávez Casillas

We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Aurélien Velleret
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