Related papers: PAC-Bayesian Bound for the Conditional Value at Ri…

In order to model risk aversion in reinforcement learning, an emerging line of research adapts familiar algorithms to optimize coherent risk functionals, a class that includes conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Because optimizing the…

The standard approach to risk-averse control is to use the Exponential Utility (EU) functional, which has been studied for several decades. Like other risk-averse utility functionals, EU encodes risk aversion through an increasing convex…

We investigate the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) property of scenario decision algorithms, which refers to their ability to produce decisions with an arbitrarily low risk of violating unknown safety constraints, provided a sufficient…

In this paper, we improve the PAC-Bayesian error bound for linear regression derived in Germain et al. [10]. The improvements are twofold. First, the proposed error bound is tighter, and converges to the generalization loss with a…

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…

Though deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has obtained substantial success, it may encounter catastrophic failures due to the intrinsic uncertainty of both transition and observation. Most of the existing methods for safe reinforcement…

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is…

The $\ell_0$-constrained mean-CVaR model poses a significant challenge due to its NP-hard nature, typically tackled through combinatorial methods characterized by high computational demands. From a markedly different perspective, we propose…

Measuring risk is at the center of modern financial risk management. As the world economy is becoming more complex and standard modeling assumptions are violated, the advanced artificial intelligence solutions may provide the right tools to…

We consider risk-averse learning in repeated unknown games where the goal of the agents is to minimize their individual risk of incurring significantly high cost. Specifically, the agents use the conditional value at risk (CVaR) as a risk…

We focus on a stochastic learning model where the learner observes a finite set of training examples and the output of the learning process is a data-dependent distribution over a space of hypotheses. The learned data-dependent distribution…

A general class of Bayesian lower bounds when the underlying loss function is a Bregman divergence is demonstrated. This class can be considered as an extension of the Weinstein--Weiss family of bounds for the mean squared error and relies…

We present a family of novel block-sample MAC-Bayes bounds (mean approximately correct). While PAC-Bayes bounds (probably approximately correct) typically give bounds for the generalization error that hold with high probability, MAC-Bayes…

Chance-constrained programs (CCPs) provide a powerful modeling framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but their nonconvex feasible regions make them computationally challenging. A widely used convex inner approximation replaces…

As a technique that can compactly represent complex patterns, machine learning has significant potential for predictive inference. K-fold cross-validation (CV) is the most common approach to ascertaining the likelihood that a machine…

We introduce a novel procedure for obtaining cross-validated predictive estimates for Bayesian hierarchical regression models (BHRMs). Bayesian hierarchical models are popular for their ability to model complex dependence structures and…

We study Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) variants of two canonical sequential decision problems: Pandora's box and the prophet inequality. For Pandora's box, the risk-aware problem retains an exact Weitzman-style index solution after a…

The Lambda Value-at-Risk (Lambda-VaR) is a generalization of the Value-at-Risk (VaR), which has been actively studied in quantitative finance. Over the past two decades, the Expected Shortfall (ES) has become one of the most important risk…

This paper focuses on the class of routing games that have uncertain costs. Assuming that agents are risk-averse and select paths with minimum conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) associated to them, we define the notion of CVaR-based Wardrop…

We introduce a new PAC-Bayes oracle bound for unbounded losses that extends Cram\'er-Chernoff bounds to the PAC-Bayesian setting. The proof technique relies on controlling the tails of certain random variables involving the Cram\'er…