Related papers: What the reproductive number R_0 can and cannot te…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
We discuss how the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives changes our estimate of the COVID-19 basic reproduction number, also known as $R_0$.
Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…
OBJECTIVES: Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 vary across countries. This paper aims to characterise the spatial variability in R0 across the first six months of the global COVID-19 outbreak, and to explore social…
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
A great issue of discussion of an infectious disease is its basic reproduction number R0, which provides an estimation of the contagiousness of the disease. When R0 > 1, the disease spread will potentially lead to an outbreak, such that of…
Modeling the spread of COVID-19 is crucial for informing public health policy. All models for COVID-19 epidemiology rely on parameters describing the dynamics of the infection process. The meanings of epidemiological parameters like R_0,…
Timely estimation of the current value for COVID-19 reproduction factor $R$ has become a key aim of efforts to inform management strategies. $R$ is an important metric used by policy-makers in setting mitigation levels and is also important…
During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…
Identifying the main environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in the population is crucial for understanding current and potential future outbursts of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. To address this problem, we…
The basic reproduction number R0 -- the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population -- is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This…
An important issue in theoretical epidemiology is the epidemic threshold phenomenon, which specify the conditions for an epidemic to grow or die out. In standard (mean-field-like) compartmental models the concept of the basic reproductive…
The time-varying reproduction number $R(t)$ measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by definition. The timings of actual infections are rarely…
A primary quantity of interest in the study of infectious diseases is the average number of new infections that an infected person produces. This so-called reproduction number has significant implications for the disease progression. There…
Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic compartmental model of re-infection…
This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…
In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting…
Accurate modeling of lockdown effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. The compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of…