Related papers: Cointegration in large VARs

Testing for the significance of a subset of regression coefficients in a linear model, a staple of statistical analysis, goes back at least to the work of Fisher who introduced the analysis of variance (ANOVA). We study this problem under…

This paper develops a large-scale inference approach for the regularization of stock return covariance matrices. The framework allows for the presence of heavy tails and multivariate GARCH-type effects of unknown form among the stock…

We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…

We introduce a unified approach to testing a variety of rather general null hypotheses that can be formulated in terms of covariances matrices. These include as special cases, for example, testing for equal variances, equal traces, or for…

This paper provides a simple, yet reliable, alternative to the (Bayesian) estimation of large multivariate VARs with time variation in the conditional mean equations and/or in the covariance structure. With our new methodology, the original…

We propose a novel cointegrated autoregressive model for matrix-valued time series, with bi-linear cointegrating vectors corresponding to the rows and columns of the matrix data. Compared to the traditional cointegration analysis, our…

It has been known since Elliott (1998) that standard methods of inference on cointegrating relationships break down entirely when autoregressive roots are near but not exactly equal to unity. We consider this problem within the framework of…

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

This paper explores a variety of topics related to the question of testing the equality of covariance matrices in multivariate linear models, particularly in the MANOVA setting. The main focus is on graphical methods that can be used to…

Covariance matrices of random vectors contain information that is crucial for modelling. Specific structures and patterns of the covariances (or correlations) may be used to justify parametric models, e.g., autoregressive models. Until now,…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…

This paper considers a time-varying vector error-correction model that allows for different time series behaviours (e.g., unit-root and locally stationary processes) to interact with each other to co-exist. From practical perspectives, this…

We extend the notion of cointegration for time series taking values in a potentially infinite dimensional Banach space. Examples of such time series include stochastic processes in C[0,1] equipped with the supremum distance and those in a…

This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…

We consider reduced-rank modeling of the white noise covariance matrix in a large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We first propose the reduced-rank covariance estimator under the setting where independent observations are…

VAR models are a type of multi-equation model that have been widely applied in econometrics. With the arrival of Big Data, huge amounts of data are being collected in numerous fields, making feasible the application of these kind of…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in modeling complex time series and has been exploited in many fields. However, fitting high dimensional VAR model poses some unique challenges: On one hand, the dimensionality,…

In this article, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the residual autocorrelations for periodic vector autoregressive time series models (PVAR henceforth) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations (i.e., weak PVAR). We then deduce the…

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…

This paper proposes a straightforward algorithm to carry out inference in large time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) with mixture innovation components for each coefficient in the system. We significantly decrease the…