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Time series regression models are commonly used in time series analysis. However, in modern real-world applications, serially correlated data with an ultra-high dimension and fat tails are prevalent. This presents a challenge in developing…
Based on a novel dynamic Whittle likelihood approximation for locally stationary processes, a Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the time-varying spectral density is proposed. This dynamic frequency-domain based likelihood…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…
Dependent nonparametric processes extend distributions over measures, such as the Dirichlet process and the beta process, to give distributions over collections of measures, typically indexed by values in some covariate space. Such models…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
Time series data arising in many applications nowadays are high-dimensional. A large number of parameters describe features of these time series. We propose a novel approach to modeling a high-dimensional time series through several…
While there is an increasing amount of literature about Bayesian time series analysis, only a few Bayesian nonparametric approaches to multivariate time series exist. Most methods rely on Whittle's Likelihood, involving the second order…
Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…
We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…
In this article we look at stochastic processes with uncertain parameters, and consider different ways in which information is obtained when carrying out observations. For example we focus on the case of a the random evolution of a traded…
In this paper we show that Hilbert space-valued stochastic models are robust with respect to perturbation, due to measurement or approximation errors, in the underlying volatility process. Within the class of stochastic volatility modulated…
Wavelets provide the flexibility to analyse stochastic processes at different scales. Here, we apply them to multivariate point processes as a means of detecting and analysing unknown non-stationarity, both within and across data streams.…
We present a novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes for handling heterogeneous outputs. We assume that each output has its own likelihood function and use a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model the parameters in…
Stochastic variational inference (SVI) is emerging as the most promising candidate for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models to large datasets. However, the performance of these methods has been assessed primarily in the…
We report a general technique to study a given experimental time series with superstatistics. Crucial for the applicability of the superstatistics concept is the existence of a parameter $\beta$ that fluctuates on a large time scale as…
In complex systems, crucial parameters are often subject to unpredictable changes in time. Climate, biological evolution and networks provide numerous examples for such non-stationarities. In many cases, improved statistical models are…
This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
Modeling correlation (and covariance) matrices can be challenging due to the positive-definiteness constraint and potential high-dimensionality. Our approach is to decompose the covariance matrix into the correlation and variance matrices…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…