Related papers: Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategi…

The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…

This paper proposes optimal lockdown management policies based on short-term prediction of active COVID-19 confirmed cases to ensure the availability of critical medical resources. The optimal time to start the lockdown from the current…

During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be tested? Although…

Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…

We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and…

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to…

In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong…

Decision making in the face of a disaster requires the consideration of several complex factors. In such cases, Bayesian multi-criteria decision analysis provides a framework for decision making. In this paper, we present how to construct a…

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted health systems and economies worldwide. Significant global efforts are therefore ongoing to improve vaccine efficacies, optimize vaccine deployment, and develop new antiviral therapies to combat…

Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…

The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to…

Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…

We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide insights into the spread of the disease that may be used for developing policy responses. The first is exponential growth, widely studied…

In order to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing restrictions, which have been widely carried out as policy choice to curb the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around the world, we formulate and discuss a staged and…

Mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread are used for guiding the design of mitigation steps aimed at containing and decelerating the contagion, and at identifying impending breaches of health care system surge capacity. The challenges of…

During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, quarantine measures were…

Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model…

Epidemiological models are an important tool in coping with epidemics, as they offer a forecast, even if often simplistic, of the behavior of the disease in the population. This allows responsible health agencies to organize themselves and…

Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…

COVID-19 has shown a relatively low mortality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms, while the severity of the disease among individuals with underlying health…