Related papers: Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategi…

The COVID-19 epidemic that emerged in Wuhan China at the end of 2019 hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules (Phase 1). There is now a hot ongoing debate in Italy and abroad on what the…

On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…

This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on…

In the context of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, several reports and studies have attempted to model and predict the spread of the disease. There is also intense debate about policies for limiting the damage, both to health and to the…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…

This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time, while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown…

The SARS-CoV-2 infectious outbreak has rapidly spread across the globe and precipitated varying policies to effectuate physical distancing to ameliorate its impact. In this study, we propose a new hybrid machine learning model, SIRNet, for…

COVID-19, a global pandemic of unprecedented scale, has had a profound impact on nations worldwide, resulting in the tragic loss of nearly 1.1 million lives in the United States and a staggering 7 million worldwide. In the absence of…

The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…

We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…

We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…

Several non-pharmaceutical interventions have been proposed to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. On the large scale, these empirical solutions, often associated with extended and complete lockdowns, attempt to minimize the costs…

We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions…

COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented global health crisis in the last 100 years. Its economic, social and health impact continues to grow and is likely to end up as one of the worst global disasters since the 1918 pandemic and the…

We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply…

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive…

We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…

The widely spread CoronaVirus Disease (COVID)-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks in history and has become an emergency of primary international concern. As the pandemic evolves, academic communities have been actively…