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In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-14 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Lexing Xie

Learning the latent network structure from large scale multivariate point process data is an important task in a wide range of scientific and business applications. For instance, we might wish to estimate the neuronal functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-21 Biao Cai , Jingfei Zhang , Yongtao Guan

Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Wenqing Liu , Xenia Miscouridou , Déborah Sulem

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke

Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

We address the problem of identifying functional interactions among stochastic neurons with variable-length memory from their spiking activity. The neuronal network is modeled by a stochastic system of interacting point processes with…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-01 Ricardo F. Ferreira , Matheus E. Pacola , Vitor G. Schiavone , Rodrigo F. O. Pena

In the last decade, Hawkes processes have received a lot of attention as good models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks. In this paper we consider a variant of this process, the Age Dependent Hawkes process, which…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-08 Mads Bonde Raad , Susanne Ditlevsen , Eva Löcherbach

Link prediction models are increasingly used to recommend interactions in evolving networks, yet their impact on network structure is typically assessed from static snapshots. In particular, observed homophily conflates intrinsic…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Mathilde Perez , Raphaël Romero , Jefrey Lijffijt , Charlotte Laclau

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Xenia Miscouridou , François Caron , Yee Whye Teh

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Guanhua Fang , Ganggang Xu , Haochen Xu , Xuening Zhu , Yongtao Guan

Some recent papers relate the criticality of complex systems to their maximal capacity of information processing. In the present paper, we consider high dimensional point processes, known as age-dependent Hawkes processes, which have been…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Julien Chevallier

Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Anna Bonnet , Felix Cheysson , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

In the present work, we introduce a general class of mean-field interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modelling the reciprocal interactions between two neuronal populations, one excitatory and one inhibitory. The model incorporates two…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-25 Céline Duval , Eric Luçon , Christophe Pouzat

Many networks have event-driven dynamics (such as communication, social media and criminal networks), where the mean rate of the events occurring at a node in the network changes according to the occurrence of other events in the network.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Santitissadeekorn N. , Delahaies S. , Lloyd D. J. B

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Maya Sadeler Perrin , Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Adeline Samson

Many modern spatio-temporal data sets, in sociology, epidemiology or seismology, for example, exhibit self-exciting characteristics, triggering and clustering behaviors both at the same time, that a suitable Hawkes space-time process can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Emilia Siviero , Guillaume Staerman , Stephan Clémençon , Thomas Moreau

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ahmer Raza , Hudson Smith