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Clinical trials are an integral component of medical research. Trials require careful design to, for example, maintain the safety of participants, use resources efficiently and allow clinically meaningful conclusions to be drawn. Adaptive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-17 James M. McGree , Antony M. Overstall , Mark Jones , Robert K. Mahar

In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional confidence interval (CI) for a treatment effect is prone to undesirable properties such as undercoverage and potential inconsistency with the final hypothesis testing decision. Accordingly, as…

A new approach to adaptive design of clinical trials is proposed in a general multiparameter exponential family setting, based on generalized likelihood ratio statistics and optimal sequential testing theory. These designs are easy to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-25 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

Regulatory guidance notes the need for caution in the interpretation of confidence intervals (CIs) constructed during and after an adaptive clinical trial. Conventional CIs of the treatment effects are prone to undercoverage (as well as…

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-18 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

Background: Advanced adaptive randomised clinical trials are increasingly used. Compared to their conventional counterparts, their flexibility may make them more efficient, increase the probability of obtaining conclusive results without…

Recent FDA guidance on adaptive clinical trial designs defines bias as "a systematic tendency for the estimate of treatment effect to deviate from its true value", and states that it is desirable to obtain and report estimates of treatment…

Clinical trial adaptation refers to any adjustment of the trial protocol after the onset of the trial. The main goal is to make the process of introducing new medical interventions to patients more efficient by reducing the cost and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-17 Ognjen Arandjelovic

In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional end-of-trial point estimate of a treatment effect is prone to bias, that is, a systematic tendency to deviate from its true value. As stated in recent FDA guidance on adaptive designs, it is…

Clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, such as overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS), are fundamental for evaluating new treatments, particularly in immuno-oncology. However, modern therapies, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-10 James Salsbury , Jeremy Oakley , Steven Julious , Lisa Hampson

The treatment assignment mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized for statistical efficiency within a specified class of randomization mechanisms. Optimal designs of this type have been characterized in terms of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

Clinical trials are an instrument for making informed decisions based on evidence from well-designed experiments. Here we consider adaptive designs mainly from the perspective of multi-arm Phase II clinical trials, in which one or more…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Elja Arjas , Dario Gasbarra

Bayesian adaptive designs have gained popularity in all phases of clinical trials with numerous new developments in the past few decades. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the need to establish evidence for the effectiveness of vaccines,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-08 Shirin Golchi

Two useful strategies to speed up drug development are to increase the patient accrual rate and use novel adaptive designs. Unfortunately, these two strategies often conflict when the evaluation of the outcome cannot keep pace with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Ruitao Lin , Ying Yuan

Observational studies often benefit from an abundance of observational units. This can lead to studies that -- while challenged by issues of internal validity -- have inferences derived from sample sizes substantially larger than randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Rachael C. Aikens , Dylan Greaves , Michael Baiocchi

Background/Aims: The increasing expense of the drug development process has seen interest in the use of adaptive designs (ADs) grow substantially in recent years. Accordingly, much research has been conducted to identify potential barriers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-14 Michael J Grayling , Graham M Wheeler

Adaptive experimental design methods are increasingly being used in industry as a tool to boost testing throughput or reduce experimentation cost relative to traditional A/B/N testing methods. This paper shares lessons learned regarding the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Tanner Fiez , Sergio Gamez , Arick Chen , Houssam Nassif , Lalit Jain

In learning-phase clinical trials in drug development, adaptive designs can be efficient and highly informative when used appropriately. In this article, we extend the multiple comparison procedures with modeling techniques (MCP-Mod)…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-02 Shiyang Ma , Michael P. McDermott

Over time, clinical trials have increasingly incorporated complex design and analysis elements such as interim analyses, adaptations, multiple endpoints, and sophisticated multiplicity schemes for multiple endpoints and/or treatment arms…

Mid-study design modifications are becoming increasingly accepted in confirmatory clinical trials, so long as appropriate methods are applied such that error rates are controlled. It is therefore unfortunate that the important case of…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-08 Dominic Magirr , Thomas Jaki , Franz Koenig , Martin Posch
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