Related papers: Adaptive County Level COVID-19 Forecast Models: An…
Mutating variants of COVID-19 have been reported across many US states since 2021. In the fight against COVID-19, it has become imperative to study the heterogeneity in the time-varying transmission rates for each variant in the presence of…
The last leg of the year 2019 gave rise to a virus named COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019). Since the beginning of this infection in India, the government implemented several policies and restrictions to curtail its spread among the…
Using a hybrid of machine learning and epidemiological approaches, we propose a novel data-driven approach in predicting US COVID-19 deaths at a county level. The model gives a more complete description of the daily death distribution,…
We established a Spatio-Temporal Neural Network, namely STNN, to forecast the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak worldwide in 2020. The basic structure of STNN is similar to the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) incorporating with not…
Corn yield prediction is beneficial as it provides valuable information about production and prices prior the harvest. Publicly available high-quality corn yield prediction can help address emergent information asymmetry problems and in…
The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…
We present an Extended Kalman Filter framework for system identification and control of a stochastic high-dimensional epidemic model. The scale and severity of the COVID-19 emergency have highlighted the need for accurate forecasts of the…
Accurate and reliable forecasting models are critical for guiding public health responses and policy decisions during pandemics such as COVID-19. Retrospective evaluation of model performance is essential for improving epidemic forecasting…
We propose an epidemiological model using an adaptive dynamic three compartment (with four states) SIR(D) model. Our approach is similar to non-parametric curve fitting in spirit and automatically adapts to key external factors, such as…
As the COVID-19 ravaging through the globe, accurate forecasts of the disease spread is crucial for situational awareness, resource allocation, and public health decision-making. Alternative to the traditional disease surveillance data…
The COVID19 pandemic globally and significantly has affected the life and health of many communities. The early detection of infected patients is effective in fighting COVID19. Using radiology (X-Ray) images is perhaps the fastest way to…
In this paper, a generalized fractional-order SEIR model is proposed, denoted by SEIQRP model, which has a basic guiding significance for the prediction of the possible outbreak of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and other insect diseases…
The recent worldwide outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has opened up new challenges to the research community. Artificial intelligence (AI) driven methods can be useful to predict the parameters, risks, and effects of such an…
To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…
The COVID-19 pandemic has had worldwide devastating effects on human lives, highlighting the need for tools to predict its development. Dynamics of such public-health threats can often be efficiently analysed through simple models that help…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…
Recent pandemics have highlighted the critical role of infectious disease models in guiding public health decision-making, driving demand for realistic models that can provide timely answers under uncertainty. Compartmental models are…
The estimate of the remaining time of an ongoing wave of epidemic spreading is a critical issue. Due to the variations of a wide range of parameters in an epidemic, for simple models such as Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, it is…
We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…
In this study, we construct a series of evolving epidemic networks by measuring the correlations of daily COVID-19 cases time series among 3,105 counties in the United States. Remarkably, through quantitative analysis of the spatial…