English
Related papers

Related papers: Bayesian Quadrature Optimization for Probability T…

200 papers

External pilot trials of complex interventions are used to help determine if and how a confirmatory trial should be undertaken, providing estimates of parameters such as recruitment, retention and adherence rates. The decision to progress…

In this paper, we consider the problem of Gaussian process (GP) optimization with an added robustness requirement: The returned point may be perturbed by an adversary, and we require the function value to remain as high as possible even…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-05 Ilija Bogunovic , Jonathan Scarlett , Stefanie Jegelka , Volkan Cevher

Many of the successes of machine learning are based on minimizing an averaged loss function. However, it is well-known that this paradigm suffers from robustness issues that hinder its applicability in safety-critical domains. These issues…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Alexander Robey , Luiz F. O. Chamon , George J. Pappas , Hamed Hassani

We develop a Bayesian approach called Bayesian projected calibration to address the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using observational data from a complex physical system. The calibration parameter and the physical…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-08 Fangzheng Xie , Yanxun Xu

In safety-critical deep learning applications, robustness measures the ability of neural models that handle imperceptible perturbations in input data, which may lead to potential safety hazards. Existing pre-deployment robustness assessment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Wenchuan Mu , Kwan Hui Lim

Uncertainties influencing the dynamical systems pose a significant challenge in estimating the achievable performance of a controller aiming to control such uncertain systems. When the uncertainties are of stochastic nature, obtaining hard…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-22 Venkatraman Renganathan

Although Bayesian Optimization (BO) has been employed for accelerating materials design in computational materials engineering, existing works are restricted to problems with quantitative variables. However, real designs of materials…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-07 Yichi Zhang , Daniel Apley , Wei Chen

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar

Robust optimization provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, with broad applications in finance, engineering, and operations research. In portfolio optimization, uncertainty in expected returns and covariances…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-15 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Grover Guzman , Nick Firoozye

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-15 Alice Cicirello , Filippo Giunta

Gaussian processes (GPs) enable principled computation of model uncertainty, making them attractive for safety-critical applications. Such scenarios demand that GP decisions are not only accurate, but also robust to perturbations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Andrea Patane , Arno Blaas , Luca Laurenti , Luca Cardelli , Stephen Roberts , Marta Kwiatkowska

With the increase of machine learning usage by industries and scientific communities in a variety of tasks such as text mining, image recognition and self-driving cars, automatic setting of hyper-parameter in learning algorithms is a key…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-05-15 Juan Cruz Barsce , Jorge A. Palombarini , Ernesto C. Martínez

Learning robot controllers by minimizing a black-box objective cost using Bayesian optimization (BO) can be time-consuming and challenging. It is very often the case that some roll-outs result in failure behaviors, causing premature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-11 Alonso Marco , Dominik Baumann , Philipp Hennig , Sebastian Trimpe

Many expensive black-box optimisation problems are sensitive to their inputs. In these problems it makes more sense to locate a region of good designs, than a single-possibly fragile-optimal design. Expensive black-box functions can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Nicholas D. Sanders , Richard M. Everson , Jonathan E. Fieldsend , Alma A. M. Rahat

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient approach for tuning design parameters to optimize expensive-to-evaluate, black-box performance metrics. In many manufacturing processes, the design parameters are subject to random input…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Samuel Daulton , Sait Cakmak , Maximilian Balandat , Michael A. Osborne , Enlu Zhou , Eytan Bakshy

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a strong candidate tool for global optimization of functions with expensive evaluation costs. However, due to the dynamic nature of research in Bayesian approaches, and the evolution of computing…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-24 Ran Rubin

We consider active learning (AL) in an uncertain environment in which trade-off between multiple risk measures need to be considered. As an AL problem in such an uncertain environment, we study Mean-Variance Analysis in Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-18 Shogo Iwazaki , Yu Inatsu , Ichiro Takeuchi

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-20 Hongqiao Wang , Guang Lin , Jinglai Li

Optimum parameter estimation methods require knowledge of a parametric probability density that statistically describes the available observations. In this work we examine Bayesian and non-Bayesian parameter estimation problems under a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-01 George V. Moustakides

This paper deals with the identification of linear stochastic dynamical systems, where the unknowns include system coefficients and noise variances. Conventional approaches that rely on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) require…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Yaakov Bar-Shalom