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Ensembles of models often yield improvements in system performance. These ensemble approaches have also been empirically shown to yield robust measures of uncertainty, and are capable of distinguishing between different \emph{forms} of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-27 Andrey Malinin , Bruno Mlodozeniec , Mark Gales

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Adversarial examples are considered a serious issue for safety critical applications of AI, such as finance, autonomous vehicle control and medicinal applications. Though significant work has resulted in increased robustness of systems to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-08 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

Ensemble approaches for uncertainty estimation have recently been applied to the tasks of misclassification detection, out-of-distribution input detection and adversarial attack detection. Prior Networks have been proposed as an approach to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

In an attempt to better understand structural benefits and generalization power of deep neural networks, we firstly present a novel graph theoretical formulation of neural network models, including fully connected, residual network (ResNet)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-29 Yuqing Li , Tao Luo , Chao Ma

We introduce provenance networks, a novel class of neural models designed to provide end-to-end, training-data-driven explainability. Unlike conventional post-hoc methods, provenance networks learn to link each prediction directly to its…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Ali Kayyam , Anusha Madan Gopal , M. Anthony Lewis

In this work, we propose a novel prior learning method for advancing generalization and uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks. The key idea is to exploit scalable and structured posteriors of neural networks as informative priors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Dominik Schnaus , Jongseok Lee , Daniel Cremers , Rudolph Triebel

Dealing with uncertainty is essential for efficient reinforcement learning. There is a growing literature on uncertainty estimation for deep learning from fixed datasets, but many of the most popular approaches are poorly-suited to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-16 Ian Osband , John Aslanides , Albin Cassirer

Ensembles of neural networks have been shown to give better performance than single networks, both in terms of predictions and uncertainty estimation. Additionally, ensembles allow the uncertainty to be decomposed into aleatoric (data) and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-11 Jakob Lindqvist , Amanda Olmin , Fredrik Lindsten , Lennart Svensson

We present a simple and effective approach for posterior uncertainty quantification in deep operator networks (DeepONets); an emerging paradigm for supervised learning in function spaces. We adopt a frequentist approach based on randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-17 Yibo Yang , Georgios Kissas , Paris Perdikaris

Accurate estimation of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty is crucial to build safe and reliable systems. Traditional approaches, such as dropout and ensemble methods, estimate uncertainty by sampling probability predictions from different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Bertrand Charpentier , Daniel Zügner , Stephan Günnemann

We present a new type of probabilistic model which we call DISsimilarity COefficient Networks (DISCO Nets). DISCO Nets allow us to efficiently sample from a posterior distribution parametrised by a neural network. During training, DISCO…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-10-31 Diane Bouchacourt , M. Pawan Kumar , Sebastian Nowozin

The recent decade has seen an enormous rise in the popularity of deep learning and neural networks. These algorithms have broken many previous records and achieved remarkable results. Their outstanding performance has significantly sped up…

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must include an uncertainty estimation mechanism. Here we examine the relationship between deep architectures and their respective training regimes, with their corresponding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-24 Ido Galil , Mohammed Dabbah , Ran El-Yaniv

We introduce a unified and computationally efficient framework for regression on network data, addressing limitations of existing models that require specialized estimation procedures or impose restrictive decay assumptions. Our Network…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Yingying Ma , Chenlei Leng

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-30 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

Data uncertainty in practical person reID is ubiquitous, hence it requires not only learning the discriminative features, but also modeling the uncertainty based on the input. This paper proposes to learn the sample posterior and the class…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-20 Yan Zhang , Zhilin Zheng , Binyu He , Li Sun
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