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We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Michael Newey , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Extraneous variables are variables that are irrelevant for a certain task, but heavily affect the distribution of the available data. In this work, we show that the presence of such variables can degrade the performance of deep-learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-27 Aakash Kaku , Sreyas Mohan , Avinash Parnandi , Heidi Schambra , Carlos Fernandez-Granda

Distribution shifts are problems where the distribution of data changes between training and testing, which can significantly degrade the performance of a model deployed in the real world. Recent studies suggest that one reason for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-10 Takuro Kutsuna

Generating calibrated and sharp neural network predictive distributions for regression problems is essential for optimal decision-making in many real-world applications. To address the miscalibration issue of neural networks, various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Victor Dheur , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Eshant English , Christoph Lippert

Prediction under uncertainty is a critical requirement for the deep neural network to succeed responsibly. This paper focuses on selective prediction, which allows DNNs to make informed decisions about when to predict or abstain based on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Ishan Mishra , Jiajie Li , Deepak Mishra , Jinjun Xiong

Feature alignment is an approach to improving robustness to distribution shift that matches the distribution of feature activations between the training distribution and test distribution. A particularly simple but effective approach to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-11 Collin Burns , Jacob Steinhardt

Deep learning models often achieve high performance by inadvertently learning spurious correlations between targets and non-essential features. For example, an image classifier may identify an object via its background that spuriously…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-19 Guangtao Zheng , Wenqian Ye , Aidong Zhang

Deep neural networks often exhibit poor performance on data that is unlikely under the train-time data distribution, for instance data affected by corruptions. Previous works demonstrate that test-time adaptation to data shift, for instance…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) promise improved generalization under covariate shift by providing principled probabilistic representations of epistemic uncertainty. However, weight-based BNNs often struggle with high computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-13 Trung Trinh , Markus Heinonen , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

Traditional normalization techniques (e.g., Batch Normalization and Instance Normalization) generally and simplistically assume that training and test data follow the same distribution. As distribution shifts are inevitable in real-world…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-17 Zhiqiang Tang , Yunhe Gao , Yi Zhu , Zhi Zhang , Mu Li , Dimitris Metaxas

Existing trajectory prediction methods exhibit significant performance degradation under distribution shifts during test time. Although test-time training techniques have been explored to enable adaptation, current approaches rely on an…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Yuning Wang , Pu Zhang , Yuan He , Ke Wang , Jianru Xue

There is a great need for robust techniques in data mining and machine learning contexts where many standard techniques such as principal component analysis and linear discriminant analysis are inherently susceptible to outliers.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-28 Garth Tarr , Samuel Müller , Neville C. Weber

Local decision rules are commonly understood to be more explainable, due to the local nature of the patterns involved. With numerical optimization methods such as gradient boosting, ensembles of local decision rules can gain good predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Xin Du , Subramanian Ramamoorthy , Wouter Duivesteijn , Jin Tian , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Dynamic neural networks are a recent technique that promises a remedy for the increasing size of modern deep learning models by dynamically adapting their computational cost to the difficulty of the inputs. In this way, the model can adjust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Lassi Meronen , Martin Trapp , Andrea Pilzer , Le Yang , Arno Solin

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

We propose Neural Priming, a technique for adapting large pretrained models to distribution shifts and downstream tasks given few or no labeled examples. Presented with class names or unlabeled test samples, Neural Priming enables the model…

Probabilistic predictions from neural networks which account for predictive uncertainty during classification is crucial in many real-world and high-impact decision making settings. However, in practice most datasets are trained on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Satya Borgohain , Klaus Ackermann , Ruben Loaiza-Maya

Under covariate shift, training (source) data and testing (target) data differ in input space distribution, but share the same conditional label distribution. This poses a challenging machine learning task. Robust Bias-Aware (RBA)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-01 Anqi Liu , Rizal Fathony , Brian D. Ziebart

Batch Normalization (BN) has become an essential technique in contemporary neural network design, enhancing training stability. Specifically, BN employs centering and scaling operations to standardize features along the batch dimension and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Shaobo Wang , Xiangdong Zhang , Dongrui Liu , Junchi Yan
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