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Simulation models are widely used in practice to facilitate decision-making in a complex, dynamic and stochastic environment. But they are computationally expensive to execute and optimize, due to lack of analytical tractability. Simulation…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an…

Solving inverse problems using Bayesian methods can become prohibitively expensive when likelihood evaluations involve complex and large scale numerical models. A common approach to circumvent this issue is to approximate the forward model…

Gaussian process (GP) surrogate modeling for large computer experiments is limited by cubic runtimes, especially with data from stochastic simulations with input-dependent noise. A popular workaround to reduce computational complexity…

Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost…

Bayesian hyperparameter optimization relies heavily on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates, due to robust distributional posteriors and strong performance on limited training samples. GPs however underperform in categorical hyperparameter…

A new algorithm is developed to tackle the issue of sampling non-Gaussian model parameter posterior probability distributions that arise from solutions to Bayesian inverse problems. The algorithm aims to mitigate some of the hurdles faced…

Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes that combine well calibrated uncertainty estimates with the high flexibility of multilayer models. One of the biggest challenges with these models is that…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

Building surrogate models is one common approach when we attempt to learn unknown black-box functions. Bayesian optimization provides a framework which allows us to build surrogate models based on sequential samples drawn from the function…

Bayesian Optimization using Gaussian Processes is a popular approach to deal with the optimization of expensive black-box functions. However, because of the a priori on the stationarity of the covariance matrix of classic Gaussian…

Inverse problems are prevalent in both scientific research and engineering applications. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, sampling from the posterior distribution can be particularly challenging when the forward models are…

Gaussian process regression is widely applied in computational science and engineering for surrogate modeling owning to its kernel-based and probabilistic nature. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach that integrates the variability…

Numerical simulations are crucial for modeling complex systems, but calibrating them becomes challenging when data are noisy or incomplete and likelihood evaluations are computationally expensive. Bayesian calibration offers an interesting…

Deep Gaussian Processes (DGP) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes (GP) that have proven to work effectively on a multiple supervised regression tasks. They combine the well calibrated uncertainty estimates of GPs with the…

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that…

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are probabilistic and non-parametric…

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are nonparametric probabilistic models…

A body of work has been done to automate machine learning algorithm to highlight the importance of model choice. Automating the process of choosing the best forecasting model and its corresponding parameters can result to improve a wide…

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…