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Reconstructing evolutionary histories and estimating the rate of evolution from molecular sequence data is of central importance in evolutionary biology and infectious disease research. We introduce a flexible Bayesian phylogenetic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-15 Pratyusa Datta , Philippe Lemey , Marc A. Suchard

A new sufficient condition is proved for the existence of stochastic semigroups generated by the sum of two unbounded operators. It is applied to one-dimensional piecewise deterministic Markov processes, where we also discuss the existence…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2009-07-07 Michael C. Mackey , Marta Tyran-Kaminska

In the paper we propose certain conditions, relatively easy to verify, which ensure the central limit theorem for some general class of Markov chains. To justify the usefulness of our criterion, we further verify it for a particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-04 Dawid Czapla , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko

At the scale of the individual cell, protein production is a stochastic process with multiple time scales, combining quick and slow random steps with discontinuous and smooth variation. Hybrid stochastic processes, in particular…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2019-05-02 Guilherme C. P. Innocentini , Fernando Antoneli , Arran Hodgkinson , Ovidiu Radulescu

Markov models are widely used to describe processes of stochastic dynamics. Here, we show that Markov models are a natural consequence of the dynamical principle of Maximum Caliber. First, we show that when there are different possible…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-28 Hao Ge , Steve Presse , Kingshuk Ghosh , Ken Dill

Filyokov and Karpov [Inzhenerno-Fizicheskii Zhurnal 13, 624 (1967)] have proposed a theory of non-equilibrium steady states in direct analogy with the theory of equilibrium states : the principle is to maximize the Shannon entropy…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-03-07 Cecile Monthus

In this paper, we consider the discounted continuous-time Markov decision process (CTMDP) with a lower bounding function. In this model, the negative part of each cost rate is bounded by the drift function, say $w$, whereas the positive…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-12-05 Xin Guo , Alexey Piunovskiy , Yi Zhang

MeanFlow enables one-step generation in continuous spaces by learning an average velocity over a time interval rather than the instantaneous velocity field of flow matching. However, discrete state spaces do not have smooth trajectories or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Fairoz Nower Khan , Nabuat Zaman Nahim , Md Sajid Ahmed , Ruiquan Huang , Peizhong Ju

Let $(M,d,\mu)$ be a uniformly discrete metric measure space satisfying space homogeneous volume doubling condition. We consider discrete time Markov chains on $M$ symmetric with respect to $\mu$ and whose one-step transition density is…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 Mathav Murugan , Laurent Saloff-Coste

It is known that state-dependent, multi-step Lyapunov bounds lead to greatly simplified verification theorems for stability for large classes of Markov chain models. This is one component of the "fluid model" approach to stability of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-05-18 Serdar Yüksel , Sean P. Meyn

We prove the existence of limiting distributions for a large class of Markov chains on a general state space in a random environment. We assume suitable versions of the standard drift and minorization conditions. In particular, the system…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-04 Attila Lovas , Miklós Rásonyi

We present an investigation of stochastic evolution in which a family of evolution equations in $L^1$ are driven by continuous-time Markov processes. These are examples of so-called piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Paweł Klimasara , Michael C. Mackey , Andrzej Tomski , Marta Tyran-Kamińska

Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Tao Tang , Lachlan Astfalck , David Dunson

We describe a general approach to the construction of a state evolution corresponding to the Markov generator of a spatial birth-and-death dynamics in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We present conditions on the birth-and-death intensities which are…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2015-01-27 Dmitri Finkelshtein , Yuri Kondratiev , Oleksandr Kutoviy

Compartmental models are effective in modeling the spread of infectious pathogens, but have remaining weaknesses in fitting to real datasets exhibiting stochastic effects. We propose a stochastic SIHR model with a dynamic transmission rate,…

Modeling the dynamics of non-stationary stochastic systems requires balancing the representational power of deep learning with the mathematical transparency of classical models. While classical Markov transition operators provide explicit,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jan Rovirosa , Jesse Schmolze

Stochastic modeling of transcription is a classic yet long-standing problem in theoretical biophysics. The lack of unified results and a computationally efficient approach for a general, fine-grained transcription model has confined…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-11-17 Yuntao Lu , Yunxin Zhang

We consider stochastic reaction networks modeled by continuous-time Markov chains. Such reaction networks often contain many reactions, potentially occurring at different time scales, and have unknown parameters (kinetic rates, total…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-20 Linard Hoessly , Carsten Wiuf

We present a model for the dynamics of a population of bacteria with a continuum of traits, who compete for resources and exchange horizontally (transfer) an otherwise vertically inherited trait with possible mutations. Competition…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-27 Sylvain Billiard , Pierre Collet , Régis Ferrière , Sylvie Méléard , Viet Chi Tran

Fluid approximations have seen great success in approximating the macro-scale behaviour of Markov systems with a large number of discrete states. However, these methods rely on the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) having a particular…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-29 Michalis Michaelides , Jane Hillston , Guido Sanguinetti