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The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-11-16 Silke van Klaveren , Ivan Vasconcelos , Andre Niemeijer

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-28 P. Proskura , A. Zaytsev , I. Braslavsky , E. Egorov , E. Burnaev

Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-03-18 Oleg Elshin , Andrew A. Tronin

The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the…

General Physics · Physics 2015-03-20 Yuriy S. Polyakov , Gennadiy V. Ryabinin , Anna B. Solovyeva , Serge F. Timashev

Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-01-19 Kun Wang , Christopher W. Johnson , Kane C. Bennett , Paul A. Johnson

This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-21 Daniel W. Chambers , Jenny A. Baglivo , John E. Ebel , Alan L. Kafka

We review previous approaches to nowcasting earthquakes and introduce new approaches based on deep learning using three distinct models based on recurrent neural networks and transformers. We discuss different choices for observables and…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-01-07 Geoffrey Fox , John Rundle , Andrea Donnellan , Bo Feng

Reliable earthquake forecasting methods have long been sought after, and so the rise of modern data science techniques raises a new question: does deep learning have the potential to learn this pattern? In this study, we leverage the large…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-07-06 Jonas Koehler , Wei Li , Johannes Faber , Georg Ruempker , Nishtha Srivastava

We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-10-28 M. J. Werner , A. Helmstetter , D. D. Jackson , Y. Y. Kagan

In the presented paper the possible methods of the large earthquake prediction are offered. During the study, it was used data of the INFREP (European Network of Electromagnetic Radiation) existent before earthquake. The elaborated methods…

This report presents a preliminary analysis of an LSTM neural network designed to predict the accuracy of magnitude estimates computed by Early-est during the first minutes after an earthquake occurs.

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-27 Massimo Nazaria

We examine the applicability of modern neural network architectures to the midterm prediction of earthquakes. Our data-based classification model aims to predict if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold takes place at a given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-04 Roman Kail , Alexey Zaytsev , Evgeny Burnaev

This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-04-20 Oleg Elshin , Andrew A. Tronin

Accurate earthquake location, which determines the origin time and location of seismic events using phase arrival times or waveforms, is fundamental to earthquake monitoring. While recent deep learning advances have significantly improved…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-18 Weiqiang Zhu , Bo Rong , Yaqi Jie , S. Shawn Wei

We present a deep learning method for single-station earthquake location, which we approach as a regression problem using two separate Bayesian neural networks. We use a multi-task temporal-convolutional neural network to learn epicentral…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-12-02 S. Mostafa Mousavi , Gregory C. Beroza

Geoscience and seismology have utilized the most advanced technologies and equipment to monitor seismic events globally from the past few decades. With the enormous amount of data, modern GPU-powered deep learning presents a promising…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-09-14 Bo Feng , Geoffrey C. Fox

Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-31 Yosihiko Ogata

The accurate and automated determination of earthquake locations is still a challenging endeavor. However, such information is critical for monitoring seismic activity and assessing potential hazards in real time. Recently, a convolutional…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-03-03 Xiong Zhang , Jie Zhang , Congcong Yuan , Sen Liu , Zhibo Chen , Weiping Li

Earthquake early warning systems are required to report earthquake locations and magnitudes as quickly as possible before the damaging S wave arrival to mitigate seismic hazards. Deep learning techniques provide potential for extracting…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-02-16 Xiong Zhang , Miao Zhang , Xiao Tian

This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 S. Cht. Mavrodiev
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