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We study identification of stochastic Wiener dynamic systems using so-called indirect inference. The main idea is to first fit an auxiliary model to the observed data and then in a second step, often by simulation, fit a more structured…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-21 Bo Wahlberg , James Welsh , Lennart Ljung

Statistical inference with nonresponse is quite challenging, especially when the response mechanism is nonignorable. The existing methods often require correct model specifications for both outcome and response models. However, due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-12 Hejian Sang , Kosuke Morikawa

Inference methods for computing confidence intervals in parametric settings usually rely on consistent estimators of the parameter of interest. However, it may be computationally and/or analytically burdensome to obtain such estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Samuel Orso , Mucyo Karemera , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Stéphane Guerrier

Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-22 Conor Durkan , George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing clustered or repeated measures data. We propose a quasi-likelihood approach for estimation and inference of the unknown parameters in linear mixed-effects models with high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-10 Sai Li , Tony T. Cai , Hongzhe Li

Recommendation is the task of improving customer experience through personalized recommendation based on users' past feedback. In this paper, we investigate the most common scenario: the user-item (U-I) matrix of implicit feedback. Even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-21 Peng Yang , Peilin Zhao , Xin Gao , Yong Liu

The aim of this paper is to present a new estimation procedure that can be applied in many statistical frameworks including density and regression and which leads to both robust and optimal (or nearly optimal) estimators. In density…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-23 Yannick Baraud , Lucien Birgé , Mathieu Sart

This paper is based on our personal notes for the short course we gave on January 5, 2017 at Institut Henri Poincar\'e, after an invitation of the SFdS. Our purpose is to give an overview of the method of $\rho$-estimation and of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-04 Yannick Baraud , Lucien Birgé

An important challenge in statistical analysis lies in controlling the estimation bias when handling the ever-increasing data size and model complexity of modern data settings. In this paper, we propose a reliable estimation and inference…

Inverse probability weighted estimators are the oldest and potentially most commonly used class of procedures for the estimation of causal effects. By adjusting for selection biases via a weighting mechanism, these procedures estimate an…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Ashkan Ertefaie , Nima S. Hejazi , Mark J. van der Laan

Statistical estimation often involves tradeoffs between expensive, high-quality measurements and a variety of lower-quality proxies. We introduce Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (MultiPPI): a general framework for constructing…

The standard efficient testing procedures in the Generalized Inverse Gaussian (GIG) family (also known as Halphen Type A family) are likelihood ratio tests, hence rely on Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation of the three parameters of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-23 Angelo Efoevi Koudou , Christophe Ley

Uncertainty quantification for estimation through stochastic optimization solutions in an online setting has gained popularity recently. This paper introduces a novel inference method focused on constructing confidence intervals with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Wanrong Zhu , Zhipeng Lou , Ziyang Wei , Wei Biao Wu

The use of standard statistical methods, such as maximum likelihood, is often justified based on their asymptotic properties. For suitably regular models, this theory is standard but, when the model is non-regular, e.g., the support depends…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-25 Ryan Martin , Yi Lin

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

In structured prediction problems where we have indirect supervision of the output, maximum marginal likelihood faces two computational obstacles: non-convexity of the objective and intractability of even a single gradient computation. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-11 Aditi Raghunathan , Roy Frostig , John Duchi , Percy Liang

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Amrith Setlur , Barnabás Póczós

Inferring the input parameters of simulators from observations is a crucial challenge with applications from epidemiology to molecular dynamics. Here we show a simple approach in the regime of sparse data and approximately correct models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-06 Rainier Barrett , Mehrad Ansari , Gourab Ghoshal , Andrew D White

Fisher's likelihood is widely used for statistical inference for fixed unknowns. This paper aims to extend two important likelihood-based methods, namely the maximum likelihood procedure for point estimation and the confidence procedure for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-03 Hangbin Lee , Youngjo Lee

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation is a general methodology combining flexible ensemble learning and semiparametric efficiency theory in a two-step procedure for estimation of causal parameters. Proposed targeted maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-22 Helene Charlotte Wiese Rytgaard , Frank Eriksson , Mark van der Laan