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Providing accurate uncertainty estimations is essential for producing reliable machine learning models, especially in safety-critical applications such as accelerator systems. Gaussian process models are generally regarded as the gold…

This paper addresses the need for deep learning models to integrate well-defined constraints into their outputs, driven by their application in surrogate models, learning with limited data and partial information, and scenarios requiring…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-02 Rahul Rathnakumar , Jiayu Huang , Hao Yan , Yongming Liu

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Jiayu Yao , Weiwei Pan , Soumya Ghosh , Finale Doshi-Velez

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-22 Manuel Haussmann , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir

Characterizing uncertainty is a common issue in nuclear measurement and has important implications for reliable physical discovery. Traditional methods are either insufficient to cope with the heterogeneous nature of uncertainty or…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-01 Pengcheng Ai , Zhi Deng , Yi Wang , Chendi Shen

Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-12 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , John Paisley , Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou , Brent Coull

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Brian Staber , Sébastien Da Veiga

Uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem in deep learning. Previous methods rely on dropout layers which are not present in modern deep architectures or batch normalization which is sensitive to batch sizes. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-10 Lukasz Wandzik , Raul Vicente Garcia , Jörg Krüger

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-16 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann

As autonomous systems increasingly rely on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to implement the navigation pipeline functions, uncertainty estimation methods have become paramount for estimating confidence in DNN predictions. Bayesian Deep Learning…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-01-16 Fabio Arnez , Huascar Espinoza , Ansgar Radermacher , François Terrier

Mathematical solvers use parametrized Optimization Problems (OPs) as inputs to yield optimal decisions. In many real-world settings, some of these parameters are unknown or uncertain. Recent research focuses on predicting the value of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Alan A. Lahoud , Erik Schaffernicht , Johannes A. Stork

This paper introduces a novel approach to quantify the uncertainties in fault diagnosis of motor drives using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Conventional data-driven approaches used for fault diagnosis often rely on point-estimate neural…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-16 Subham Sahoo , Huai Wang , Frede Blaabjerg

Neural networks (NNs) can achieved high performance in various fields such as computer vision, and natural language processing. However, deploying NNs in resource-constrained safety-critical systems has challenges due to uncertainty in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Soyed Tuhin Ahmed

As autonomous systems increasingly rely on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to implement the navigation pipeline functions, uncertainty estimation methods have become paramount for estimating confidence in DNN predictions. Bayesian Deep Learning…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Fabio Arnez , Ansgar Radermacher , Huascar Espinoza

Standard deep learning models for classification and regression applications are ideal for capturing complex system dynamics. However, their predictions can be arbitrarily inaccurate when the input samples are not similar to the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-27 Kishansingh Rajput , Malachi Schram , Karthik Somayaji

We propose a novel deep neural network (DNN) based approximation architecture to learn estimates of measurements. We detail an algorithm that enables training of the DNN. The DNN estimator only uses measurements, if and when they are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-13 Shivangi Agarwal , Sanjit K. Kaul , Saket Anand , P. B. Sujit

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

Many methods have been proposed to quantify the predictive uncertainty associated with the outputs of deep neural networks. Among them, ensemble methods often lead to state-of-the-art results, though they require modifications to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Zhiyun Lu , Eugene Ie , Fei Sha