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Predictive variability due to data ambiguities has typically been addressed via construction of dedicated models with built-in probabilistic capabilities that are trained to predict uncertainty estimates as variables of interest. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Katarína Tóthová , Ľubor Ladický , Daniel Thul , Marc Pollefeys , Ender Konukoglu

Density-based Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has recently been shown unreliable for the task of detecting OOD images. Various density ratio based approaches achieve good empirical performance, however methods typically lack a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-09 Mingtian Zhang , Andi Zhang , Tim Z. Xiao , Yitong Sun , Steven McDonagh

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Runa Eschenhagen , Erik Daxberger , Philipp Hennig , Agustinus Kristiadi

Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty in modern neural networks is critical to achieve well calibrated predictions and detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. The most promising approaches have been predominantly focused on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-13 Shreyas Padhy , Zachary Nado , Jie Ren , Jeremiah Liu , Jasper Snoek , Balaji Lakshminarayanan

In this work we aim to obtain computationally-efficient uncertainty estimates with deep networks. For this, we propose a modified knowledge distillation procedure that achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimates both for in and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-14 Erik Englesson , Hossein Azizpour

We propose a metric -- Projection Norm -- to predict a model's performance on out-of-distribution (OOD) data without access to ground truth labels. Projection Norm first uses model predictions to pseudo-label test samples and then trains a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-14 Yaodong Yu , Zitong Yang , Alexander Wei , Yi Ma , Jacob Steinhardt

A reliable uncertainty estimation method is the foundation of many modern out-of-distribution (OOD) detectors, which are critical for safe deployments of deep learning models in the open world. In this work, we propose TULiP, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-26 Yuhui Zhang , Dongshen Wu , Yuichiro Wada , Takafumi Kanamori

This paper proposes a new data-driven method for the reliable prediction of power system post-fault trajectories. The proposed method is based on the fundamentally new concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Compared to traditional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-02-16 Christian Moya , Shiqi Zhang , Meng Yue , Guang Lin

In satellite image analysis, distributional mismatch between the training and test data may arise due to several reasons, including unseen classes in the test data and differences in the geographic area. Deep learning based models may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Jakob Gawlikowski , Sudipan Saha , Anna Kruspe , Xiao Xiang Zhu

Deep neural networks have achieved great success in classification tasks during the last years. However, one major problem to the path towards artificial intelligence is the inability of neural networks to accurately detect samples from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Aristotelis-Angelos Papadopoulos , Mohammad Reza Rajati , Nazim Shaikh , Jiamian Wang

As AI models are increasingly deployed in critical applications, ensuring the consistent performance of models when exposed to unusual situations such as out-of-distribution (OOD) or perturbed data, is important. Therefore, this paper…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Jamiu Idowu , Ahmed Almasoud

In object detection with deep neural networks, the box-wise objectness score tends to be overconfident, sometimes even indicating high confidence in presence of inaccurate predictions. Hence, the reliability of the prediction and therefore…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Marius Schubert , Karsten Kahl , Matthias Rottmann

In monocular depth estimation, uncertainty estimation approaches mainly target the data uncertainty introduced by image noise. In contrast to prior work, we address the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge, which is relevant for the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Julia Hornauer , Adrian Holzbock , Vasileios Belagiannis

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for machine learning models to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. However, the conventional discriminative deep learning classifiers produce uncalibrated closed-set predictions for OOD data. A more…

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for preventing deep learning models from making incorrect predictions to ensure the safety of artificial intelligence systems. Especially in safety-critical applications such as medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Mouxiao Huang , Yu Qiao

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) instances is crucial for the reliable deployment of machine learning models in real-world scenarios. OOD inputs are commonly expected to cause a more uncertain prediction in the primary task; however,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Mohammad Azizmalayeri , Ameen Abu-Hanna , Giovanni Cinà

Deep neural networks suffer from the overconfidence issue in the open world, meaning that classifiers could yield confident, incorrect predictions for out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. Thus, it is an urgent and challenging task to detect…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Qiuyu Zhu , Guohui Zheng , Yingying Yan

Accurate state and uncertainty estimation is imperative for mobile robots and self driving vehicles to achieve safe navigation in pedestrian rich environments. A critical component of state and uncertainty estimation for robot navigation is…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Kapil D. Katyal , I-Jeng Wang , Gregory D. Hager

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal