Related papers: Trends, Reversion, and Critical Phenomena in Finan…
We empirically analyze the reversion of financial market trends with time horizons ranging from minutes to decades. The analysis covers equities, interest rates, currencies and commodities and combines 14 years of futures tick data, 30…
We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time…
Trading styles can be classified into either trend-following or mean-reverting. If the net trading style is trend-following the traded asset is more likely to move in the same direction it moved previously (the opposite is true if the net…
We provide further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long term (several years). Our results bolster Black's intuition that prices tend to be off roughly by a factor of 2, and take years to…
Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of two fundamental indicators, price velocity and price acceleration, we construct a general classification of the possible patterns characterizing the…
We investigate possible origins of trends using a deterministic threshold model, where we refer to long-term variabilities of price changes (price movements) in financial markets as trends. From the investigation we find two phenomena. One…
The financial markets are understood as complex dynamical systems whose dynamics is analysed mostly using nonstationary and brief data sets that usually come from stock markets. For such data sets, a reliable method of analysis is based on…
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…
Sharp changes in time series representing market dynamics are studied by means of the self--similar analysis suggested earlier by the authors. These sharp changes are market booms and crashes. Such crises phenomena in markets are analogous…
It is suggested to consider long term trends of financial markets as a growth phenomenon. The question that is asked is what conditions are needed for a long term sustainable growth or contraction in a financial market? The paper discuss…
For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model…
Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock…
Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…
Financial market is an example of complex system, which is characterized by a highly intricate organization and the emergence of collective behavior. In this paper, we quantify this emergent dynamics in the financial market by using…
Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random…
For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model…
We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…
We present a symmetry analysis of the distribution of variations of different financial indices, by means of a statistical procedure developed by the authors based on a symmetry statistic by Einmahl and Mckeague. We applied this statistical…