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Related papers: Synthetic Interventions

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Iterative Synthetic Control Method is introduced in this study, a modification of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) designed to improve its predictive performance by utilizing control units affected by the treatment in question. This…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-06 Andrii Melnychuk

Consider a setting where there are $N$ heterogeneous units and $p$ interventions. Our goal is to learn unit-specific potential outcomes for any combination of these $p$ interventions, i.e., $N \times 2^p$ causal parameters. Choosing a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Abhineet Agarwal , Anish Agarwal , Suhas Vijaykumar

Synthetic Control methods have recently gained considerable attention in applications with only one treated unit. Their popularity is partly based on the key insight that we can predict good synthetic counterfactuals for our treated unit.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-15 Tzvetan Moev

Quantifying cause and effect relationships is an important problem in many domains. The gold standard solution is to conduct a randomised controlled trial. However, in many situations such trials cannot be performed. In the absence of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-19 Jakob Zeitler , Athanasios Vlontzos , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Synthetic control methods have gained popularity among causal studies with observational data, particularly when estimating the impacts of the interventions that are implemented to a small number of large units. Implementing the synthetic…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-29 Gyuhyeong Goh , Jisang Yu

Synthetic control methods are widely used for policy evaluation, but most existing approaches rule out interference among units, compromising validity when such effects are present. We develop a framework that accommodates contaminated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Peiyu He , Yilin Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao

This study proposes a new Bayesian approach to infer binary treatment effects. The approach treats counterfactual untreated outcomes as missing observations and infers them by completing a matrix composed of realized and potential untreated…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Masahiro Tanaka

In causal inference with observational studies, synthetic control (SC) has emerged as a prominent tool. SC has traditionally been applied to aggregate-level datasets, but more recent work has extended its use to individual-level data. As…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Saeyoung Rho , Andrew Tang , Noah Bergam , Rachel Cummings , Vishal Misra

Synthetic control methods can produce misleading counterfactual predictions when outcome series contain unit-specific stochastic trends, a common feature of nonstationary macroeconomic data. Existing remedies, such as pre-filtering or…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-21 Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

This paper proposes a framework that incorporates the two-way fixed effects model as a special case to conduct causal inference with a continuous treatment. Treatments are allowed to change over time and potential outcomes are dependent on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Zhiguo Xiao , Peikai Wu

To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Hongxiang Qiu , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Edgar Dobriban , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

This paper discusses a practical approach that combines synthetic control with triple difference to address violations of the parallel trends assumption. By transforming triple difference into a DID structure, we can apply synthetic control…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-24 Castiel Chen Zhuang

We consider sequential treatment regimes where each unit is exposed to combinations of interventions over time. When interventions are described by qualitative labels, such as "close schools for a month due to a pandemic" or "promote this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Jialin Yu , Andreas Koukorinis , Nicolò Colombo , Yuchen Zhu , Ricardo Silva

Estimation and inference procedures for synthetic control methods often do not allow for the existence of spillover effects, which are plausible in many applications. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for synthetic control…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-23 Jianfei Cao , Connor Dowd

Mixed-frequency data, where variables are observed at different temporal resolutions, commonly occur in economic and financial studies. Classical synthetic control methods (SCM) are ill-suited for such data, often necessitating aggregation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Lu Zhang , Shijin Gong , Xinyu Zhang

Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs) have become increasingly popular and are used for a variety of interventions and outcomes, often chosen for their feasibility advantages. SW-CRTs must account for time trends in the outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-16 Lee Kennedy-Shaffer , Victor De Gruttola , Marc Lipsitch

We investigate the optimal design of experimental studies that have pre-treatment outcome data available. The average treatment effect is estimated as the difference between the weighted average outcomes of the treated and control units. A…

Spatial interference (SI) occurs when the treatment at one location affects the outcomes at other locations. Accounting for spatial interference in spatiotemporal settings poses further challenges as interference violates the stable unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-02 Sahara Ali , Omar Faruque , Jianwu Wang

A common approach to constructing a Synthetic Control unit is to fit on the outcome variable and covariates in pre-treatment time periods, but it has been shown by Ferman and Pinto (2019) that this approach does not provide asymptotic…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-07 Joseph Fry

Synthetic control methods (SCMs) are a canonical approach used to estimate treatment effects from panel data in the internet economy. We shed light on a frequently overlooked but ubiquitous assumption made in SCMs of "overlap": a treated…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-26 Daniel Ngo , Keegan Harris , Anish Agarwal , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Zhiwei Steven Wu