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Bayesian model comparison relies upon the model evidence, yet for many models of interest the model evidence is unavailable in closed form and must be approximated. Many of the estimators for evidence that have been proposed in the Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-02 Chris J. Oates , Theodore Papamarkou , Mark Girolami

In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-27 Kimia Vahdat , Sara Shashaani

Variational inference in Bayesian deep learning often involves computing the gradient of an expectation that lacks a closed-form solution. In these cases, pathwise and score-function gradient estimators are the most common approaches. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Kenyon Ng , Susan Wei

Quantum mechanics for many-body systems may be reduced to the evaluation of integrals in 3N dimensions using Monte-Carlo, providing the Quantum Monte Carlo ab initio methods. Here we limit ourselves to expectation values for trial…

Computational Physics · Physics 2010-11-22 John Robert Trail , Ryo Maezono

Gradient estimation -- approximating the gradient of an expectation with respect to the parameters of a distribution -- is central to the solution of many machine learning problems. However, when the distribution is discrete, most common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-16 Jiaxin Shi , Yuhao Zhou , Jessica Hwang , Michalis K. Titsias , Lester Mackey

In this paper, we aim to compute numerical approximation integral by using an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling algorithm based on an iterative method which splits the strata following some quantities called…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Toni Sayah

It is well known that Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods scale poorly with dataset size. A popular class of methods for solving this issue is stochastic gradient MCMC. These methods use a noisy estimate of the gradient of the log…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-15 Jack Baker , Paul Fearnhead , Emily B. Fox , Christopher Nemeth

Real-world distributed systems and networks are often unreliable and subject to random failures of its components. Such a stochastic behavior affects adversely the complexity of optimization tasks performed routinely upon such systems, in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Milos Hauskrecht , Tomas Singliar

We introduce a class of Monte Carlo estimators that aim to overcome the rapid growth of variance with dimension often observed for standard estimators by exploiting the target's independence structure. We identify the most basic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Juan Kuntz , Francesca R. Crucinio , Adam M. Johansen

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-27 David Gunawan , Robert Kohn , David Nott

For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulations…

We investigate Monte Carlo energy and variance minimization techniques for optimizing many-body wave functions. Several variants of the basic techniques are studied, including limiting the variations in the weighting factors which arise in…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 P. R. C. Kent , R. J. Needs , G. Rajagopal

We study an optimal control problem under uncertainty, where the target function is the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation with random coefficients, steered by a control function. The robust formulation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Philipp A. Guth , Vesa Kaarnioja , Frances Y. Kuo , Claudia Schillings , Ian H. Sloan

The optimal control problem of stochastic systems is commonly solved via robust or scenario-based optimization methods, which are both challenging to scale to long optimization horizons. We cast the optimal control problem of a stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Etienne Buehrle , Christoph Stiller

We estimate the parameter of a stationary time series process by minimizing the integrated weighted mean squared error between the empirical and simulated characteristic function, when the true characteristic functions cannot be explicitly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Richard A. Davis , Thiago do Rêgo Sousa , Claudia Klüppelberg

We consider stochastic optimization when one only has access to biased stochastic oracles of the objective and the gradient, and obtaining stochastic gradients with low biases comes at high costs. This setting captures various optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Yifan Hu , Jie Wang , Xin Chen , Niao He

This review covers applications of quantum Monte Carlo methods to quantum mechanical problems in the study of electronic and atomic structure, as well as applications to statistical mechanical problems both of static and dynamic nature. The…

chem-ph · Physics 2016-10-26 M. P. Nightingale , C. J. Umrigar

In this paper, the minimization of computational cost on evaluating multi-dimensional integrals is explored. More specifically, a method based on an adaptive scheme for error variance selection in Monte Carlo integration (MCI) is presented.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-06-27 Felipe Carraro , Rafael Holdorf Lopez , Leandro Fleck Fadel Miguel , André Jacomel Torii

Zero-variance control variates (ZV-CV) are a post-processing method to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators of expectations using the derivatives of the log target. Once the derivatives are available, the only additional…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-17 Leah F. South , Chris J. Oates , Antonietta Mira , Christopher Drovandi

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is a popular class of algorithms for scalable Bayesian inference. However, these algorithms include hyperparameters such as step size or batch size that influence the accuracy of…

Computation · Statistics 2021-11-19 Jeremie Coullon , Leah South , Christopher Nemeth