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We present an approach for satisfying state constraints in systems with nonparametric uncertainty by estimating this uncertainty with a real-time-update Gaussian process (GP) model. Notably, new data is incorporated into the model in real…

A computational method based on the non-linear Gaussian process (GP), known as deep Gaussian processes (deep GPs) for uncertainty quantification & propagation in modelling of flow through heterogeneous porous media is presented. The method…

Bayesian optimization is a popular tool for data-efficient optimization of expensive objective functions. In real-life applications like engineering design, the designer often wants to take multiple objectives as well as input uncertainty…

Due to significant manufacturing process variations, the performance of integrated circuits (ICs) has become increasingly uncertain. Such uncertainties must be carefully quantified with efficient stochastic circuit simulators. This paper…

We review various methods used to estimate uncertainties in quantum correlation functions, such as parton distribution functions (PDFs). Using a toy model of a PDF, we compare the uncertainty estimates yielded by the traditional Hessian and…

Gaussian process modeling is a standard tool for building emulators for computer experiments, which are usually used to study deterministic functions, for example, a solution to a given system of partial differential equations. This work…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitous tools for modeling and predicting continuous processes in physical and engineering sciences. This is partly due to the fact that one may employ a Gaussian process as an interpolator while facilitating…

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian…

High-dimensional Bayesian optimization (BO) tasks such as molecular design often require 10,000 function evaluations before obtaining meaningful results. While methods like sparse variational Gaussian processes (SVGPs) reduce computational…

Sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs) construct tractable posterior approximations to GP models. At the core of these methods is the assumption that the true posterior distribution over training function values ${\bf f}$ and inducing…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful paradigm for derivative-free global optimization of a black-box objective function (BOF) that is expensive to evaluate. However, the overhead of BO can still be prohibitive for problems with highly…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an effective paradigm for the optimization of expensive-to-sample systems. Standard BO learns the performance of a system $f(x)$ by using a Gaussian Process (GP) model; this treats the system as a black-box and…

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian…

Bayesian optimization (BO) has become popular for sequential optimization of black-box functions. When BO is used to optimize a target function, we often have access to previous evaluations of potentially related functions. This begs the…

Although Gaussian processes (GPs) with deep kernels have been successfully used for meta-learning in regression tasks, its uncertainty estimation performance can be poor. We propose a meta-learning method for calibrating deep kernel GPs for…

The Bayesian Conjugate Gradient method (BayesCG) is a probabilistic generalization of the Conjugate Gradient method (CG) for solving linear systems with real symmetric positive definite coefficient matrices. Our CG-based implementation of…

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a popular nonparametric Bayesian method that provides predictive uncertainty estimates and is widely used in safety-critical applications. While prior research has introduced various uncertainty bounds,…

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…