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We develop estimation for potentially high-dimensional additive structural equation models. A key component of our approach is to decouple order search among the variables from feature or edge selection in a directed acyclic graph encoding…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-02 Peter Bühlmann , Jonas Peters , Jan Ernest

Existing work on Counterfactual Explanations (CE) and Algorithmic Recourse (AR) has largely focused on single individuals in a static environment: given some estimated model, the goal is to find valid counterfactuals for an individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Patrick Altmeyer , Giovan Angela , Aleksander Buszydlik , Karol Dobiczek , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

With recent advances in natural language processing, rationalization becomes an essential self-explaining diagram to disentangle the black box by selecting a subset of input texts to account for the major variation in prediction. Yet,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Wenbo Zhang , Tong Wu , Yunlong Wang , Yong Cai , Hengrui Cai

We introduce algorithms for online, full-information prediction that are competitive with contextual tree experts of unknown complexity, in both probabilistic and adversarial settings. We show that by incorporating a probabilistic framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-23 Vidya Muthukumar , Mitas Ray , Anant Sahai , Peter L. Bartlett

Counterfactual explanation methods interpret the outputs of a machine learning model in the form of "what-if scenarios" without compromising the fidelity-interpretability trade-off. They explain how to obtain a desired prediction from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-19 Peyman Rasouli , Ingrid Chieh Yu

Causal discovery is challenging in general dynamical systems because, without strong structural assumptions, the underlying causal graph may not be identifiable even from interventional data. However, many real-world systems exhibit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Panayiotis Panayiotou , Özgür Şimşek

Probabilistic machine learning models are often insufficient to help with decisions on interventions because those models find correlations - not causal relationships. If observational data is only available and experimentation are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-13 Marios Papamichalis , Abhishek Ray , Ilias Bilionis , Karthik Kannan , Rajiv Krishnamurthy

We target the problem of accuracy and robustness in causal inference from finite data sets. Some state-of-the-art algorithms produce clear output complete with solid theoretical guarantees but are susceptible to propagating erroneous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Tom Yan , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary Lipton

While for deterministic systems, a counterexample to a property can simply be an error trace, counterexamples in probabilistic systems are necessarily more complex. For instance, a set of erroneous traces with a sufficient cumulative…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-02-11 Tomáš Brázdil , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Martin Chmelík , Andreas Fellner , Jan Křetínský

Confounding bias, missing data, and selection bias are three common obstacles to valid causal inference in the data sciences. Covariate adjustment is the most pervasive technique for recovering casual effects from confounding bias. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Mojdeh Saadati , Jin Tian

Causal discovery algorithms often perform poorly with limited samples. While integrating expert knowledge (including from LLMs) as constraints promises to improve performance, guarantees for existing methods require perfect predictions or…

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Sina Akbari , Fateme Jamshidi , Ehsan Mokhtarian , Matthew J. Vowels , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

We consider the common setting where one observes probability estimates for a large number of events, such as default risks for numerous bonds. Unfortunately, even with unbiased estimates, selecting events corresponding to the most extreme…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-14 Gareth M. James , Peter Radchenko , Bradley Rava

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal relationships. One…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-12-01 Pedro A. Ortega

Algorithmic recourse aims to disclose the inner workings of the black-box decision process in situations where decisions have significant consequences, by providing recommendations to empower beneficiaries to achieve a more favorable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei , Amir-Hossein Karimi , Bernhard Schölkopf , Setareh Maghsudi

A popular strategy for active learning is to specifically target a reduction in epistemic uncertainty, since aleatoric uncertainty is often considered as being intrinsic to the system of interest and therefore not reducible. Yet,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Jake Thomas , Jeremie Houssineau

A key challenge for robotic systems is to figure out the behavior of another agent. The capability to draw correct inferences is crucial to derive human behavior from examples. Processing correct inferences is especially challenging when…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Alexander Wich , Holger Schultheis , Michael Beetz

Current causal discovery approaches require restrictive model assumptions in the absence of interventional data to ensure structure identifiability. These assumptions often do not hold in real-world applications leading to a loss of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-25 Anish Dhir , Ruby Sedgwick , Avinash Kori , Ben Glocker , Mark van der Wilk
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