Related papers: Understanding the Dynamics of Information Flow Dur…

Individual and community psychology plays an important role in disaster management as human behavior exhibit diverse risk perceptions, recognition of the threats that exists, positive and negative emotions, panic, anger, rumor, stress and…

The application of Markov chains to modelling refugee crises is explored, focusing on local migration of individuals at the level of cities and days. As an explicit example we apply the Markov chains migration model developed here to UNHCR…

With the advent of the era of big data, massive information, expert experience, and high-accuracy models bring great opportunities to the information cascade prediction of public emergencies. However, the involvement of specialist knowledge…

Wildfires pose an increasing threat to the safety and reliability of power systems, particularly in distribution networks located in fire-prone regions. To mitigate ignition risk from electrical infrastructure, utilities often employ safety…

A problem of optimal information acquisition for its use in general decision making problems is considered. This motivates the need for developing quantitative measures of information sources' capabilities for supplying accurate information…

In this work, a strategy to estimate the information transfer between the elements of a complex system, from the time series associated to the evolution of this elements, is presented. By using the nearest neighbors of each state, the local…

In this note, a general approach to the study of non-stationary Markov chains with catastrophes and the corresponding queuing models is considered, as well as to obtain estimates of the limiting regime itself. As an illustration, an example…

The dynamics of decisions in complex networks is studied within a Markov process framework using numerical simulations combined with mathematical insight into the process mechanisms. A mathematical discrete-time model is derived based on a…

There seems to exist significant similarities between a reactor system and a supply chain from collection to delivery. In the reactor case, neutrons are continuously produced and absorbed in nuclear fuel. In a supply system case, items are…

Flowgraph models provide an alternative approach in modeling a multi-state stochastic process. One of the most widely used stochastic processes that have many real-world applications especially in actuarial models is the Markov jump process…

In this work, we consider the case where a source with bursty traffic can adjust the transmission duration in order to increase the reliability. The source is equipped with a queue in order to store the arriving packets. We model the system…

The modern news cycle has been fundamentally reshaped by the rapid exchange of information online. As a result, media framing shifts dynamically as new information, political responses, and social reactions emerge. Understanding how these…

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

While most existing epidemic models focus on the influence of isolated factors, infectious disease transmission is inherently shaped by the complex interplay of multiple interacting elements. To better capture real-world dynamics, it is…

To better understand the flows of ideas or information through social and biological systems, researchers develop maps that reveal important patterns in network flows. In practice, network flow models have implied memoryless first-order…

Electric power network expanded rapidly in recent decades due of the excessive need of electricity in every aspect of life, including critical infrastructures such as medical services, and transportation and communication systems. Natural…

We study a continuous-time dynamical system of nodes diffusively coupled over a hierarchical network to examine the efficiency and performance tradeoffs that organizations, teams, and command and control units face while achieving…

News media has long been an ecosystem of creation, reproduction, and critique, where news outlets report on current events and add commentary to ongoing stories. Understanding the dynamics of news information creation and dispersion is…

Disaster response is critical to save lives and reduce damages in the aftermath of a disaster. Fundamental to disaster response operations is the management of disaster relief resources. To this end, a local agency (e.g., a local emergency…

Complex systems made of interacting elements are commonly abstracted as networks, in which nodes are associated with dynamic state variables, whose evolution is driven by interactions mediated by the edges. Markov processes have been the…