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A simple expression for the non-equilibrium distribution function in ultra-fast transient processes is proposed. Postulating its dependence on temporal derivatives of the equilibrium integrals of motion, non-equilibrium analogues of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-02-18 K. S. Glavatskiy

Extreme value analysis (EVA) is a statistical method that studies the properties of extreme values of datasets, crucial for fields like engineering, meteorology, finance, insurance, and environmental science. EVA models extreme events using…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-10-15 Kumiko Hayashi , Nobumichi Takamatsu , Shunki Takaramoto

Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 John H. J. Einmahl , Laurens de Haan , Deyuan Li

The rate of uniform convergence in extreme value statistics is non-universal and can be arbitrarily slow. Further, the relative error can be unbounded in the tail of the approximation, leading to difficulty in extrapolating the extreme…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-05 Ashivni Shekhawat

Detecting anomalies in a temporal sequence of graphs can be applied is areas such as the detection of accidents in transport networks and cyber attacks in computer networks. Existing methods for detecting abnormal graphs can suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi , Conrad Sanderson , Rob J. Hyndman

We apply the Principle of Maximum Entropy to the study of a general class of deterministic fractal sets. The scaling laws peculiar to these objects are accounted for by means of a constraint concerning the average content of information in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 R. Pastor-Satorras , J. Wagensberg

We consider a particular instance of the lift of controlled systems recently proposed in the theory of irreversible thermodynamics and show that it leads to a variational principle for an optimal control in the sense of Pontryagin. Then we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-04-11 Alessandro Bravetti , Pablo Padilla

Max-stable processes are widely used to model spatial extremes. These processes exhibit asymptotic dependence meaning that the large values of the process can occur simultaneously over space. Recently, inverted max-stable processes have…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

We present a random-matrix realization of a two-dimensional percolation model with the occupation probability $p$. We find that the behavior of the model is governed by the two first extreme eigenvalues. While the second extreme eigenvalue…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-23 Sina Saber , Abbas Ali Saberi

We derive exact expressions for the finite-time statistics of extrema (maximum and minimum) of the spatial displacement and the fluctuating entropy flow of biased random walks. Our approach captures key features of extreme events in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-02-10 Alexandre Guillet , Édgar Roldán , Frank Jülicher

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Grace Burtenshaw , Joe Lane , Meagan Carney

The main objective of this paper is to develop extreme value theory for $\vartheta$-expansions. We establish the limit distribution of the maximum value in a $\vartheta$-continued fraction mixing stationary stochastic process, along with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Gabriela Ileana Sebe , Dan Lascu , Bilel Selmi

Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-10-27 Aanjaneya Kumar , Suman Kulkarni , M. S. Santhanam

We study the effect on the distribution of return periods of rare events of the presence in a time series of finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, we analyze the auto-correlation function and the statistics of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-09-08 Cecilia Pennetta , Eleonora Alfinito

Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 Victor S. L'vov , Anna Pomyalov , Itamar Procaccia

We re-consider Leadbetter's extremal index for stationary sequences. It has interpretation as reciprocal of the expected size of an extremal cluster above high thresholds. We focus on heavy-tailed time series, in particular on regularly…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-10 Gloria Buriticá , Meyer Nicolas , Thomas Mikosch , Olivier Wintenberger

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-06 Louise Largeau , Tom Beucler , David Leutwyler , Gregoire Mariethoz , Valerie Chavez-Demoulin , Erwan Koch

We investigate the distribution and multiple occurrences of extreme events stochastic processes constructed by sampling the solution of a Stochastic Differential Equation on $\mathbb{R}^n$. We do so by studying the action of an annealead…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-20 F. Flandoli , S. Galatolo , P. Giulietti , S. Vaienti

The recurrence times between extreme events have been the central point of statistical analyses in many different areas of science. Simultaneously, the Poincar\'e recurrence time has been extensively used to characterize nonlinear dynamical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Eduardo G. Altmann , Holger Kantz

We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-17 Rafał Kulik , Philippe Soulier