Related papers: Black to Negative: Embedded optionalities in commo…
This paper introduces an information-based model for the pricing of storable commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. The model uses the concept of market information about future supply and demand as a basis for valuation. Physical…
Energy companies need efficient procedures to perform market calibration of stochastic models for commodities. If the Black framework is chosen for option pricing, the bottleneck of the market calibration is the computation of the variance…
This paper models firm-to-firm trade in a production network as a set of double auctions. Firms have multilateral market power, namely, can affect prices in both input and output markets. The size and division of surplus are endogenous and…
We investigate the use of the normalized imbalance between option volumes corresponding to positive and negative market views, as a predictor for directional price movements in the spot market. Via a nonlinear analysis, and using a…
Liberalized electricity markets often include resource adequacy mechanisms that require consumers to contract with generation resources well in advance of real-time operations. While administratively defined mechanisms have most commonly…
We introduce a local volatility model for the valuation of options on commodity futures by using European vanilla option prices. The corresponding calibration problem is addressed within an online framework, allowing the use of multiple…
G-expectation, as a sublinear expectation, provides a powerful framework for modeling uncertainty in financial markets. Motivated by the need for robust valuation under model uncertainty, this work develops a unified risk-neutral valuation…
This article presents a generic framework for modeling the dynamics of forward curves in commodity market as commodity derivatives are typically traded by futures or forwards. We have theoretically demonstrated that commodity prices are…
We investigate the problem of pricing and hedging derivatives of Electricity Futures contract when the underlying asset is not available. We propose to use a cross hedging strategy based on the Futures contract covering the larger delivery…
We design three continuous--time models in finite horizon of a commodity price, whose dynamics can be affected by the actions of a representative risk--neutral producer and a representative risk--neutral trader. Depending on the model, the…
We analyse two models of liquidity provision to determine the retail traders' preference for marketable order routing. Order internalization is captured by a model of market makers competing for the retail order flow in a Bertrand fashion.…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the…
This paper considers options pricing when the assumption of normality is replaced with that of the symmetry of the underlying distribution. Such a market affords many equivalent martingale measures (EMM). However we argue (as in the…
The introduction of transaction costs into the theory of option pricing could lead not only to the change of return for options, but also to the change of the volatility. On the base of assumption of the portfolio analysis, a new equation…
The paper introduces a limit version of multiple stopping options such that the holder selects dynamically a weight function that control the distribution of the payments (benefits) over time. In applications for commodities and energy…
The observed proportionality between nominal prices and average embodied energies cannot be interpreted with conventional economic theory. A model is presented that places energy transfers as the focal point of scarcity based on the idea…
Several models for the pricing of derivative securities in illiquid markets are discussed. A typical type of nonlinear partial differential equations arising from these investigation is studied. The scaling properties of these equations are…
In this note, we develop stock option price approximations for a model which takes both the risk o default and the stochastic volatility into account. We also let the intensity of defaults be influenced by the volatility. We show that it…
Option pricing is mainly based on ideal market conditions which are well represented by the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) as market model. We study the effect of non-ideal market conditions on the price of the option. We focus our…
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanisms of financial derivatives. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g--expectation defined by solutions of a backward stochastic differential equation with g as its…