Related papers: A predictive model for Covid-19 spread applied to …
A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…
In this study, we construct a series of evolving epidemic networks by measuring the correlations of daily COVID-19 cases time series among 3,105 counties in the United States. Remarkably, through quantitative analysis of the spatial…
State government-mandated social distancing measures have helped to slow down the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Current predictive models of the development of COVID-19, especially after mitigation efforts, are…
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…
We propose a time-fractional compartmental model (SEI$_A$I$_S$HRD) comprising of the susceptible, exposed, infected (asymptomatic and symptomatic), hospitalized, recovered and dead population for the Covid-19 pandemic. We study the…
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disturbance to human life. An important reason behind the widespread social anxiety is the huge uncertainty about the pandemic. A fundamental uncertainty is how many or what percentage of people have…
The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political…
Since the first coronavirus case was identified in the U.S. on Jan. 21, more than 1 million people in the U.S. have confirmed cases of COVID-19. This infectious respiratory disease has spread rapidly across more than 3000 counties and 50…
We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…
Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going…
As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…
Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…
We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…
We study and predict the evolution of Covid-19 in six US states from the period May 1 through August 31 using a discrete compartment-based model and prescribe active intervention policies, like lockdowns, on the basis of minimizing a loss…
Background: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic dilated rapidly throughout India. To end the global COVID-19 pandemic major behavioral, social distancing, contact tracing, and state interventions has been undertaken to reduce the outbreak and…
The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…
The ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic has been announced a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, and the Govt. of India has declared a nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020, to prevent community transmission of…
To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…
In this work, we discuss the SIR epidemiological model and different variations of it applied to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemia; we employ the data of the state of Guanajuato and of Mexico. We present some considerations that can…
COVID-19 is not a universal killer. We study the spread of COVID-19 at the county level for the United States up until the 15$^{th}$ of August, 2020. We show that the prevalence of the disease and the death rate are correlated with the…