Related papers: Rethinking Case Fatality Ratios for COVID-19 from …

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted delayed reporting as a significant impediment to effective disease surveillance and decision-making. In the absence of timely data, statistical models which account for delays can be adopted to nowcast…

The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most…

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, whether COVID-19 patients with high risks can be recovered or not depends, to a large extent, on how early they will be treated appropriately before irreversible consequences are caused to the patients by…

The Italian government has been one of the most responsive to COVID-19 emergency, through the adoption of quick and increasingly stringent measures to contain the outbreak. Despite this, Italy has suffered a huge human and social cost,…

As the ravages caused by COVID-19 pandemic are becoming inevitable with every moment, monitoring and understanding of transmission and fatality rate has become even more paramount for containing its spread. The key purpose of this analysis…

During an epidemic outbreak of a new disease, the probability of dying once infected is considered an important though difficult task to be computed. Since it is very hard to know the true number of infected people, the focus is placed on…

This work evaluates the severity of COVID-19 Omicron variant in terms of the case-fatality-rates (CFR) with respective uncertainty intervals via a simultaneous fitting of confirmed cases and deaths in the USA, India, Brazil, France, Germany…

The COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who subsequently die. As COVID-19 disproportionately affects older individuals, age-specific IFR estimates are imperative to facilitate…

Factors such as non-uniform definitions of mortality, uncertainty in disease prevalence, and biased sampling complicate the quantification of fatality during an epidemic. Regardless of the employed fatality measure, the infected population…

This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to…

The difference in COVID 19 death rates across political regimes has caught a lot of attention. The "efficient autocracy" view suggests that autocracies may be more efficient at putting in place policies that contain COVID 19 spread. On the…

A key challenge in estimating the infection fatality rate (IFR) -- and its relation with various factors of interest -- is determining the total number of cases. The total number of cases is not known because not everyone is tested, but…

Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level.…

Understanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical for examining the pandemic's progression. Despite efforts to carefully monitor the pandemic, the number of confirmed cases may underestimate the total number of infections. We…

Introduction: Endpoint choice for randomized controlled trials of treatments for COVID-19 is complex. A new disease brings many uncertainties, but trials must start rapidly. COVID-19 is heterogeneous, ranging from mild disease that improves…

As the COVID-19 outbreak is developing the two most frequently reported statistics seem to be the raw confirmed case and case fatalities counts. Focusing on Italy, one of the hardest hit countries, we look at how these two values could be…

Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. They are all publishing the number of new individuals infected, cured and dead, along with…

The determination of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a key aim for many of the field studies that are currently being undertaken in response to the pandemic. The IFR together with the basic…

This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643…