Related papers: A Bayesian Time-Varying Autoregressive Model for I…
Linear models that contain a time-dependent response and explanatory variables have attracted much interest in recent years. The most general form of the existing approaches is of a linear regression model with autoregressive moving average…
Contemporary time series data often feature objects connected by a social network that naturally induces temporal dependence involving connected neighbours. The network vector autoregressive model is useful for describing the influence of…
Transformed Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (TGARMA) models were recently proposed to deal with non-additivity, non-normality and heteroscedasticity in real time series data. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is proposed for…
We propose a Bayesian propensity score-augmented latent factor model for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data. The framework explicitly models the treatment assignment mechanism by incorporating latent factor loadings,…
The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of models has been to…
This paper considers a general class of nonparametric time series regression models where the regression function can be time-dependent. We establish an asymptotic theory for estimates of the time-varying regression functions. For this…
We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are…
Conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on the future paths of some other variables, are used routinely by empirical macroeconomists in a number of applied settings. In spite of this, the existing…
Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine…
We consider heteroscedastic nonparametric regression models, when both the mean function and variance function are unknown and to be estimated with nonparametric approaches. We derive convergence rates of posterior distributions for this…
In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
We consider the situation where a temporal process is composed of contiguous segments with differing slopes and replicated noise-corrupted time series measurements are observed. The unknown mean of the data generating process is modelled as…
Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…
This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are…
We develop a new statistical model to analyse time-varying ranking data. The model can be used with a large number of ranked items, accommodates exogenous time-varying covariates and partial rankings, and is estimated via the maximum…
The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…
Dynamic linear regression models forecast the values of a time series based on a linear combination of a set of exogenous time series while incorporating a time series process for the error term. This error process is often assumed to…
We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…