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With the growing adoption of AI-based systems across everyday life, the need to understand their decision-making mechanisms is correspondingly increasing. The level at which we can trust the statistical inferences made from AI-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-15 Adam Spannaus , Heidi A. Hanson , Lynne Penberthy , Georgia Tourassi

Explainable machine learning (XML) has emerged as a major challenge in artificial intelligence (AI). Although black-box models such as Deep Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting often exhibit exceptional predictive accuracy, their lack of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Evgenii Kuriabov , Jia Li

To ensure safe driving in dynamic environments, autonomous vehicles should possess the capability to accurately predict lane change intentions of surrounding vehicles in advance and forecast their future trajectories. Existing motion…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Mingxing Peng , Xusen Guo , Xianda Chen , Meixin Zhu , Kehua Chen

The method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a widely used statistical approach for estimating the values of one or more unknown parameters of a probabilistic model based on observed data. In this tutorial, I briefly review the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-12-03 Anthony Vella

The forecasting of the credit default risk has been an important research field for several decades. Traditionally, logistic regression has been widely recognized as a solution due to its accuracy and interpretability. As a recent trend,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-22 Dangxing Chen , Weicheng Ye , Jiahui Ye

In this work, we instantiate a novel perturbation-based multi-class explanation framework, LIPEx (Locally Interpretable Probabilistic Explanation). We demonstrate that LIPEx not only locally replicates the probability distributions output…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-08 Hongbo Zhu , Angelo Cangelosi , Procheta Sen , Anirbit Mukherjee

Explainability is motivated by the lack of transparency of black-box Machine Learning approaches, which do not foster trust and acceptance of Machine Learning algorithms. This also happens in the Predictive Process Monitoring field, where…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Williams Rizzi , Marco Comuzzi , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Suhwan Lee , Fabrizio Maria Maggi , Alexander Nolte

As predictive machine learning models become increasingly adopted and advanced, their role has evolved from merely predicting outcomes to actively shaping them. This evolution has underscored the importance of Trustworthy AI, highlighting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Fabio Michele Russo , Carlo Metta , Anna Monreale , Salvatore Rinzivillo , Fabio Pinelli

As Large Language Models (LLMs) scale to handle massive context windows, achieving surgical feature-level interpretation is essential for high-stakes tasks like legal auditing and code debugging. However, existing local model-agnostic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Junhao Liu , Haonan Yu , Zhenyu Yan , Xin Zhang

Clinical decisions are high-stakes and require explicit justification, making model interpretability essential for auditing deep clinical models prior to deployment. As the ecosystem of model architectures and explainability methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Yongda Fan , John Wu , Andrea Fitzpatrick , Naveen Baskaran , Jimeng Sun , Adam Cross

Debiased machine learning (DML) offers an attractive way to estimate treatment effects in observational settings, where identification of causal parameters requires a conditional independence or unconfoundedness assumption, since it allows…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-16 Victor Quintas-Martinez

Medical imaging diagnosis increasingly relies on Machine Learning (ML) models. This is a task that is often hampered by severely imbalanced datasets, where positive cases can be quite rare. Their use is further compromised by their limited…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-26 Yumnah Hasan , Allan de Lima , Fatemeh Amerehi , Darian Reyes Fernandez de Bulnes , Patrick Healy , Conor Ryan

In many settings, it is important that a model be capable of providing reasons for its predictions (i.e., the model must be interpretable). However, the model's reasoning may not conform with well-established knowledge. In such cases, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-19 Jiaxuan Wang , Jeeheh Oh , Haozhu Wang , Jenna Wiens

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has created the single biggest technology revolution the world has ever seen. For the finance sector, it provides great opportunities to enhance customer experience, democratize financial services, ensure…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-02 Branka Hadji Misheva , Joerg Osterrieder , Ali Hirsa , Onkar Kulkarni , Stephen Fung Lin

Deep neural networks are powerful statistical learners. However, their predictions do not come with an explanation of their process. To analyze these models, explanation methods are being developed. We present a novel explanation method,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-01-29 David Harbecke

Background: Understanding the relationship between the Omics and the phenotype is a central problem in precision medicine. The high dimensionality of metabolomics data challenges learning algorithms in terms of scalability and…

Structured Latent Attribute Models (SLAMs) are a family of discrete latent variable models widely used in education, psychology, and epidemiology to model multivariate categorical data. A SLAM assumes that multiple discrete latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-12 Yuqi Gu , Gongjun Xu

The demand for open and trustworthy AI models points towards widespread publishing of model weights. Consumers of these model weights must be able to act accordingly with the information provided. That said, one of the simplest AI…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Danial Dervovic , Freddy Lécué , Nicolás Marchesotti , Daniele Magazzeni

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for clinical reasoning tasks, which inherently require eliciting calibrated probabilistic beliefs based on available evidence. However, real-world clinical data are frequently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Yuta Kobayashi , Vincent Jeanselme , Shalmali Joshi

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful technique for enhancing the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing approaches often rely on heuristic strategies for parallel sampling, lacking a principled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Youkang Wang , Jian Wang , Rubing Chen , Xiao-Yong Wei