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We consider the two related problems of detecting if an example is misclassified or out-of-distribution. We present a simple baseline that utilizes probabilities from softmax distributions. Correctly classified examples tend to have greater…
Traditional neural network regression models provide only point estimates, failing to capture predictive uncertainty. Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) address this limitation by producing output distributions, enabling the construction…
Detecting test samples drawn sufficiently far away from the training distribution statistically or adversarially is a fundamental requirement for deploying a good classifier in many real-world machine learning applications. However, deep…
We present a new method for uncertainty estimation and out-of-distribution detection in neural networks with softmax output. We extend softmax layer with an additional constant input. The corresponding additional output is able to represent…
Neural operators aim to approximate the solution operator of a system of differential equations purely from data. They have shown immense success in modeling complex dynamical systems across various domains. However, the occurrence of…
The application of machine learning in safety-critical systems requires a reliable assessment of uncertainty. However, deep neural networks are known to produce highly overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Even if…
The problem of detecting whether a test sample is from in-distribution (i.e., training distribution by a classifier) or out-of-distribution sufficiently different from it arises in many real-world machine learning applications. However, the…
This article describes a robust algorithm to estimate a conditional probability density f(t|x) as a non-parametric smooth regression function. It is based on a neural network and the Bayesian interpretation of the network output as a…
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have performed admirably in classification tasks. However, the characterization of their classification uncertainties, required for certain applications, has been lacking. In this work, we investigate the issue…
Commonly used AI networks are very self-confident in their predictions, even when the evidence for a certain decision is dubious. The investigation of a deep learning model output is pivotal for understanding its decision processes and…
Though remarkable progress has been achieved in various vision tasks, deep neural networks still suffer obvious performance degradation when tested in out-of-distribution scenarios. We argue that the feature statistics (mean and standard…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are often constructed under the closed-world assumption, which may fail to generalize to the out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This leads to DNNs producing overconfident wrong predictions and can result in…
A softmax operator applied to a set of values acts somewhat like the maximization function and somewhat like an average. In sequential decision making, softmax is often used in settings where it is necessary to maximize utility but also to…
Probabilistic models often use neural networks to control their predictive uncertainty. However, when making out-of-distribution (OOD)} predictions, the often-uncontrollable extrapolation properties of neural networks yield poor uncertainty…
Neural networks utilize the softmax as a building block in classification tasks, which contains an overconfidence problem and lacks an uncertainty representation ability. As a Bayesian alternative to the softmax, we consider a random…
It is often remarked that neural networks fail to increase their uncertainty when predicting on data far from the training distribution. Yet naively using softmax confidence as a proxy for uncertainty achieves modest success in tasks…
We present a latent variable model for classification that provides a novel probabilistic interpretation of neural network softmax classifiers. We derive a variational objective to train the model, analogous to the evidence lower bound…
Neural networks (NNs) are widely used for object classification in autonomous driving. However, NNs can fail on input data not well represented by the training dataset, known as out-of-distribution (OOD) data. A mechanism to detect OOD…
The distribution of a neural network's latent representations has been successfully used to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This work investigates whether this distribution moreover correlates with a model's epistemic uncertainty,…
Existing uncertainty modeling approaches try to detect an out-of-distribution point from the in-distribution dataset. We extend this argument to detect finer-grained uncertainty that distinguishes between (a). certain points, (b). uncertain…