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Contextual bandit algorithms have transformed modern experimentation by enabling real-time adaptation for personalized treatment and efficient use of data. Yet these advantages create challenges for statistical inference due to adaptivity.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Yongyi Guo , Ziping Xu

To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-30 Shai Feldman , Liran Ringel , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

This paper revisits the classical problem of interval estimation of a binomial proportion under Huber contamination. Our main result derives the rate of optimal interval length when the contamination proportion is unknown under a local…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-13 Minjun Cho , Yuetian Luo , Chao Gao

This work investigates the sequential hypothesis testing problem with online sensor selection and sensor usage constraints. That is, in a sensor network, the fusion center sequentially acquires samples by selecting one "most informative"…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-26 Shang Li , Xiaoou Li , Xiaodong Wang , Jingchen Liu

Linear models are foundational tools in statistics and ubiquitous across the applied sciences. However, conventional statistical inference -- such as $t$-tests and $F$-tests -- are only valid at fixed sample sizes, making them unsuitable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Michael Lindon , Dae Woong Ham , Martin Tingley , Iavor Bojinov

Belief updating in Bayes nets, a well known computationally hard problem, has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms, and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Deterministic algorithms usually provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Eugene Santos , Solomon Eyal Shimony , Edward Williams

A number of algorithms have been developed to solve probabilistic inference problems on belief networks. These algorithms can be divided into two main groups: exact techniques which exploit the conditional independence revealed when the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Ross D. Shachter , Mark Alan Peot

In this paper we present a new algorithm for online (sequential) inference in Bayesian neural networks, and show its suitability for tackling contextual bandit problems. The key idea is to combine the extended Kalman filter (which locally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Gerardo Duran-Martin , Aleyna Kara , Kevin Murphy

When faced with high frequency streams of data, clustering raises theoretical and algorithmic pitfalls. We introduce a new and adaptive online clustering algorithm relying on a quasi-Bayesian approach, with a dynamic (i.e., time-dependent)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-24 Le Li , Benjamin Guedj , Sébastien Loustau

In this paper, an online learning algorithm is proposed as sequential stochastic approximation of a regularization path converging to the regression function in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). We show that it is possible to…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-23 Pierre Tarrès , Yuan Yao

We develop a general framework for conducting inference on the mean of dependent random variables given constraints on their dependency graph. We establish the consistency of an oracle variance estimator of the mean when the dependency…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-02 Peter M. Aronow , Forrest W. Crawford , José R. Zubizarreta

In this paper, we introduce a method for approximating the solution to inference and optimization tasks in uncertain and deterministic reasoning. Such tasks are in general intractable for exact algorithms because of the large number of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-12 David Ephraim Larkin

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) work well on large datasets. But labelled data is hard to collect, and in some applications larger amounts of data are not available. The problem then is how to use CNNs with small data -- as CNNs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-19 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

We study a tight Bennett-type concentration inequality for sums of heterogeneous and independent variables, defined as a one-dimensional minimization. We show that this refinement, which outperforms the standard known bounds, remains…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-23 Quentin Jacquet , Riadh Zorgati

We study the discrete bin covering problem where a multiset of items from a fixed set $S \subseteq (0,1]$ must be split into disjoint subsets while maximizing the number of subsets whose contents sum to at least $1$. We study the online…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Magnus Berg , Shahin Kamali

Online learning is an inferential paradigm in which parameters are updated incrementally from sequentially available data, in contrast to batch learning, where the entire dataset is processed at once. In this paper, we assume that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Jeyong Lee , Junhyeok Choi , Minwoo Chae

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

Confidence sequences based on test martingales provide time-uniform uncertainty quantification for the mean of bounded IID observations without parametric distributional assumptions. Their practical efficiency, however, depends strongly on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Valentin Kilian , Stefano Cortinovis , François Caron

A flexible conformal inference method is developed to construct confidence intervals for the frequencies of queried objects in very large data sets, based on a much smaller sketch of those data. The approach is data-adaptive and requires no…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Matteo Sesia , Stefano Favaro

We propose an optimal sequential methodology for obtaining confidence intervals for a binomial proportion $\theta$. Assuming that an i.i.d. random sequence of Benoulli($\theta$) trials is observed sequentially, we are interested in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-21 Tony Yaacoub , George V. Moustakides , Yajun Mei