Related papers: Early epidemic spread, percolation and Covid-19
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…
When an epidemic spreads into a population, it is often unpractical or impossible to have a continuous monitoring of all subjects involved. As an alternative, algorithmic solutions can be used to infer the state of the whole population from…
Percolation on two-dimensional small-world networks has been proposed as a model for the spread of plant diseases. In this paper we give an analytic solution of this model using a combination of generating function methods and high-order…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
To understand the contact patterns of a population -- who is in contact with whom, and when the contacts happen -- is crucial for modeling outbreaks of infectious disease. Traditional theoretical epidemiology assumes that any individual can…
This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…
The outcome of SIR epidemics with heterogeneous infective lifetimes, or heterogeneous susceptibilities, can be mapped onto a directed percolation process on the underlying contact network. In this paper we study SIR models where…
An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…
In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…
Bootstrap percolation is an often used model to study the spread of diseases, rumors, and information on sparse random graphs. The percolation process demonstrates a critical value such that the graph is either almost completely affected or…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
The challenges presented by the COVID-19 epidemic have created a renewed interest in the development of new methods to combat infectious diseases. A prominent property of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission is the significant fraction of…
Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account, by assuming that the relevant information to study…
Networks of person-person contacts form the substrate along which infectious diseases spread. Most network-based studies of the spread focus on the impact of variations in degree (the number of contacts an individual has). However, other…
The study of how diseases spread has greatly benefited from advances in network modeling. Recently, a class of networks known as multilayer graphs has been shown to describe more accurately many real systems, making it possible to address…
In this paper we establish a relation between the spread of infectious diseases and the dynamics of so called M/G/1 queues with processor sharing. The in epidemiology well known relation between the spread of epidemics and branching…